OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just heard a rumor Cordray is getting in this week.

Ugh. Even if he is, this **** needs to stop. I refuse to support him, unless he becomes our GE nominee.

I’m fine with him running despite the awful Hamlet routine since it should knock out Sutton (who will hopefully drop down to OH-16 since no one is running there for some reason).  I wonder if Pillich will run against Chabot.  Portune would be much better, but I think even Pillich or Sittenfield could win and it’d be political malpractice not to seriously contest OH-1 in 2018 with at least a strong wave insurance candidate.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Proof of Cordray being an absolute bore.

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I know a lot of people have a boner for life imitating art re: TD's timeline, but it's highly unlikely.

Cordrey is a pretty boring speaker, I won't argue with you there.  However, he's a very smart guy who'd be a great Governor, is very much in it for the right reasons, is extremely popular with Franklin County voters of all stripes, is one of the only candidates running who has demonstrated real crossover appeal in prior elections against against a strong opponent (Pillich being the other one), has far better name ID than any of the Democrats currently running, and shouldn't have to rely too much on the ODP for fundraising (I assume).  

That all being said, I would definitely prefer Schiavoni (who I agree has greater chance of winning back the types of voters we need to win this election although I don't think Cordrey is a paper tiger so much as a solid candidate whom some OH Dems in their desperation have made out to be the savior of the ODP which is ridiculous) and was very annoyed by Cordrey's Hamlet routine.  The time to decide whether he was running was months ago and he shouldn't have been strongly implying to everyone that he wasn't going to run for anything again.  That said, if it ends up looking like Cordrey is the only one who can stop Sutton, I'll definitely vote for him in the primary because Sutton is far and away the weakest Democratic candidate running.  Hopefully Schiavoni gets nominated though and on the bright side, this also means Leland probably won't take an LG spot with Sutton.  I'd much rather see Leland run for something statewide either in 2018 or 2022 than hitch himself to Sutton's doomed gubernatorial candidacy.  

Of course, this assumes that DeWine wins the GOP primary.  If Husted wins, and I suspect he will, then we're gonna lose no matter who we nominate.  Oh and I agree with Rjjr77 that Cordrey really shot himself in the foot by waiting so long.  My guess is he wasn't planning to run at all until the VA election earlier this month; it's the only explanation I can come up with aside from pure incompetence and whatever you want to say about Cordrey, the man certainly isn't dumb or incompetent.

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

I tend to agree regarding the Governor's race, but we still want someone strong enough here not to hurt us downticket (i.e. someone besides Sutton) since we have a really good shot at picking up the AG and Auditor's offices.  Additionally, if 2018 is a big enough wave, we could potentially pick up the SoS office although that's certainly a heavier lift.  In Ohio, several of the statewide offices have seats on the state's redistricting commission so it's not impossible to have a situation where one party controls the legislature, but the other party draws the new legislative and congressional maps.  In fact, it actually happened in the '92 redistricting IIRÇ.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jesus H Christ, Ohio Democrats must be the most miserable people in the country to be around

I'm an Ohio Democrat and a Cleveland sports fan, I wake up each morning with a smile.

Enjoy the Cordray stans on atlas for the next 6+ months. I’m sure you’ll love them just as much as I loved berniebros during the primaries.

Maybe. It's anecdotal, but I can count the number of Ohioans excited about Cordray on one hand. And two are Melissa Barnhart people, one of whom was actually working for Zack Scott. So, meh.

Barnhart is the worst.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's not as if Ohio Democrats are without hope. People feel good about Space and Dettelbach, and maybe Cordray will surprise. Part of being an Ohio Democrat -- and a Cleveland sports fan -- is believing something better is around the corner, despite a losing streak. It's why I wake up with a smile.

Clyde could win too if the wave is big enough.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's not as if Ohio Democrats are without hope. People feel good about Space and Dettelbach, and maybe Cordray will surprise. Part of being an Ohio Democrat -- and a Cleveland sports fan -- is believing something better is around the corner, despite a losing streak. It's why I wake up with a smile.

Clyde could win too if the wave is big enough.

Could. Treasurer is the thing I feel worst about, and it seems very unlikely another Democrat gets in since 1) it's super late, and 2) it seems like Pepper explicitly recruited Richardson himself.

Who knows. Maybe he'll boost minority turnout up ticket.

Right? Totally worked for Kevin Boyce

Maybe. 2010 was a bad year, and I doubt Sprague runs a campaign as race-baiting and Islamophobic as Mandel.

Also Boyce was (is?) really corrupt IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's not as if Ohio Democrats are without hope. People feel good about Space and Dettelbach, and maybe Cordray will surprise. Part of being an Ohio Democrat -- and a Cleveland sports fan -- is believing something better is around the corner, despite a losing streak. It's why I wake up with a smile.

Clyde could win too if the wave is big enough.

Could. Treasurer is the thing I feel worst about, and it seems very unlikely another Democrat gets in since 1) it's super late, and 2) it seems like Pepper explicitly recruited Richardson himself.

Who knows. Maybe he'll boost minority turnout up ticket.

Right? Totally worked for Kevin Boyce

Maybe. 2010 was a bad year, and I doubt Sprague runs a campaign as race-baiting and Islamophobic as Mandel.

Also Boyce was (is?) really corrupt IIRC.

I've heard this, but no one can say what corrupt acts he's taken.

He does seem to be Beatty's chosen successor, for when she retires. Speaking of, I heard Cordray/Beatty floated this evening. Which strikes me as an immensely dumb ticket.

Also, Schiavoni is evidently looking at a Cuyahoga-based non-politician.

Re: Boyce being Beatty's successor: Gross

Re: Cordrey/Beatty: Why?

Re: Schiavoni/Non-politician: Why? Part II

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think it's safe to say that as a Democrat I'll be supporting either Cordray or Sutton...but unless Republicans just don't campaign, they're favored here. All four of their candidates have serious name recognition advantages...and if I were a Democrat, which I am, I'd be especially afraid of DeWine or Husted winning the Primary.

lol

No one other than Husted or DeWine can win the primary.

Doesn't Renacci have money and a very Trumpy profile?

He is independently wealthy, but he's not going anywhere. At best, he'll act as a spoiler and push DeWine over the edge against Husted.

DeWine has name ID in the 90% range and a 60% approval rating.

If Trump is still popular among Ohio Republicans, it's possible Renacci pulls off the upset. The only Republican who can't win (and currently is in the race) is Taylor, who is too closely aligned to the unpopular Kasich administration. She might be better off switching to the Senate race, and taking on Mandel.

Renacci really is DoA. No one knows who he is, and while independently wealthy, he won't actually spend his money. Just loan it to himself so he seems viable. Husted's got plenty of Trump cred, as is.

Also, I was just listening to the BBC. They're talking about O'Neil.

Re: Husted: Husted is one of the very few (the only?) Republican politicians who has managed thus far to:

- 1) Explicitly refuse to endorse Trump in 2016 while also presenting himself as someone who is at least generally open to working with the other side in good-faith, thus maintaining real credibility among independents and even make himself semi-acceptable to some Democrats

- 2) Believably distanced himself from Trump & his faction in the OH GOP post-2016 in a way that has provided him with strong support from the many anti-Trump Republicans planning to protest vote against most Republicans in 2018 in places like Franklin County, Lake County*, Hamilton County, certain parts of Montgomery County, etc.

- 3) Somehow do all of the above while still remaining relatively popular with the Trumpists

Re: O'Neill: The scuttlebutt I've heard is that O'Neill decided he didn't want to step aside for Cordray after all and – apparently forgetting which side's primary he was running in – decided his best shot at winning was to make a big play for Trump voters (b/c that's totally who Bill O'Neill's logical base would be /s).  Being Bill O'Neill, he naturally went about it in one of the most offensive and batsh!t insane ways imaginable yet was genuinely shocked that anyone was offended.  Again, this is just what I've heard so take it with a grain of salt, but it wouldn't surprise me and would also explain why he started freaking out about athletes taking a knee.

*Joyce really can't afford to be asleep at the wheel in 2018 even though Democrats are running a C-lister against him this cycle because of course they are  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly ReasonableGuy who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the CFPB drama going to affect Cordray's chances in Ohio?

Had he been fired, I think he would’ve gotten the Sally Yates/Preet Bharara hero treatment. Now, he may come off as more of an opportunist that helped create the current mess.

*Ding* *Ding* *Ding*

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is Cordray really even that popular?

Unclear, he certainly used to be

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, it probably is the strongest in history. Not that the joint election of Governor and Lieutenant is a long-standing tradition. Less than 10 cycles at this point, including 2018. It also really speaks to how Taylor's star power has tarnished. Getting elected convincingly in 2006 was no small achievement. I've said it before, and I'll likely say it again -- she should have just run for Renacci's seat.

Is the CFPB drama going to affect Cordray's chances in Ohio?

Had he been fired, I think he would’ve gotten the Sally Yates/Preet Bharara hero treatment. Now, he may come off as more of an opportunist that helped create the current mess.

*Ding* *Ding* *Ding*

Meant to address this last night, but the sad thing about this is, given the chance, Trump would have just gone and fired Cordray the day after the filing deadline. Because unlike Yates or Bharara, Cordray had clear aspirations to run for office.

Re: Taylor: IIRC she barely won in 2006.

Re: The Republican ticket: At least the DeWine/Husted ticket probably won't have significant coattails in the row-office races.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why did Husted do this? I thought he had a good shot at winning the Republican primary.

And yeah, I think Husted/DeWine would have been a lot better for Rs.

It would’ve been and Husted’s people are really pissed, few in his campaign were told about it before the story broke.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Taylor and Renacci should make a similar deal.


If you ask me, I think Husted’s angling for a Senate seat and figures this will hurt him less.

Nope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Taylor and Renacci should make a similar deal.


If you ask me, I think Husted’s angling for a Senate seat and figures this will hurt him less.

Nope

Husted might be angling for a Senate seat down the line, but yeah, no. Taylor and Renacci should not and will not team up.

I think if he really wanted that he’d have switched to the Senate race instead of being DeWine’s LG.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Huh, I could probably make that announcement if I knew the time. Oh well.

--

Unrelated: Theory swirling that since DeWine will be 72 by the time of the 2019 inauguration, he promised Husted to only serve one term in exchange for the team up.

this appears to be the prevailing thought. Many in Ohio are shocked by the news, since most thought Husted would emerge victorious from the primary, however with financial and other concerns it may be that he decided this was a bad year to have a bloody primary.

I’ve heard that too

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

*stops by*

I would like to say I called this a year ago while 3/4 of you said Cordray would not run. Thank you in advance.

*leaves*

And had Northam not won by so much, you’d have been wrong.  Lucky guesses are just what they sound like (no offense).  Anyway, the extent to which Cordray blew entering the race is remarkable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hearing credible rumors Nina Turner is going to jump in.

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hearing credible rumors Nina Turner is going to jump in.

Oh man I would laugh so hard. Can you post a source?

No, just something at the ODP Holiday Party.

Hoping folks are wrong.

How did the people at the ODP Holiday Party feel about the possibility of Nina Turner running?

Nina Turner is only slightly more popular with the ODP than Bill O’Neill and for good reason.  She’s an egomaniacal phony who always makes vanity runs on a radical fringe platform.  Any influence she has today is largely just the ODP throwing a bone to the Sanders folks.  I should note that Turner nearly ended up agreeing to be Jill Stein’s runningmate in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What does Nina Turner have to gain by running? She's prez of Our Revolution and, as far as I know, still has The Nina Turner Show (sounds fake, but I promise you it's real). She's also been involved with the DNC's Unity Commission. She has lots of things going on that are keeping her name and profile out there much better than a failed gubernatorial campaign would. She has been open with (as some of you have already mentioned) her disagreements/quarrels with the state party, so surely she knows it'd be tough to even get a campaign started, and with so much competition already and many of the progressive endorsements already gone? Why bother?

Egomania

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Joe Schiavoni the first Democrat on the air with a TV spot.

I'm not sure who I like better, Schiavoni or Cordray. I'd like to know more of Cordray's positions on issues unrelated to financial regulation/consumer protection before deciding.

I think we're very likely to see a Periello v Northam dynamic emerge in Ohio, where Cordray represents the choice of Washington outsiders and Schiavoni (among others) represents the choice of Ohioans. Unfortunately, a split field probably means Cordray makes it through, despite being low energy and washed up.

Cordray's low-energy, but I don't think he's a washed up has-been by any means (and I say that as a Schiavoni supporter).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So say the pretty accurate rumorists over at 3rd Rail.

Oh good, I was worried the ticket would be too exciting with just Cordray

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray/Sutton appears to be an excellent ticket. It's a smart move for Sutton as well since Cordray is clearly being eyed by Elizabeth Warren as a potential VP or cabinet pick.

Cordray's not gonna be on anyone's VP list even if he wins, which he probably won't (although anything's possible).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Assad being a possible topic in the Ohio gubernatorial election is quintessential post-Trump politics. We fall further down the rabbit hole every day.

Being an Assad apologist might have nothing to do with this race, but being a Trump apologist certainly has. And Kucinich has been one of the staunchest Trump defenders, regurgitating and validating all his conspiracy theories about the "deep state" being out there to get him.
The guy is either a fraud or a nut, and at this point I don't know which is worse.

Take it from an Ohioan, he’s a fraud through-and-through, used to have mob ties once IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Assad being a possible topic in the Ohio gubernatorial election is quintessential post-Trump politics. We fall further down the rabbit hole every day.

Being an Assad apologist might have nothing to do with this race, but being a Trump apologist certainly has. And Kucinich has been one of the staunchest Trump defenders, regurgitating and validating all his conspiracy theories about the "deep state" being out there to get him.
The guy is either a fraud or a nut, and at this point I don't know which is worse.

Take it from an Ohioan, he’s a fraud through-and-through, used to have mob ties once IIRC.

They took a hit out on the guy.

Wasn't it partly relating to his involvement in some sort of sketchy stuff with Cleveland's public utilities or am I misremembering? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Renacci to announce he drops gubernatorial bid, will run for senate instead.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180110/renacci-ready-to-run-for-senate-after-white-house-meeting

lol