KY-Bluegrass (SUSA): Grimes +1, McConnell safe in Primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What worries me is that Grimes seems stuck in the low forties and (IIRC) this is the first poll to show her leading.  A large majority of the undecideds will probably break towards McConnell and Kentucky is a state that has been trending hard towards the Republican party for quite a while.  It also lacks the significant African-American population of states like Georgia, North Carolina, etc.  Even in Arkansas, the percentage of the population that is African-Americans is more than twice as high as in Kentucky.  There's also the coal-related issues, but I don't think I need to elaborate on that.  Grimes is a very strong candidate (probably the best one we could have recruited with the possible exception of Steve Beshear) and she is clearly running against a ridiculously unpopular incumbent.  However, I'm not convinced that that's enough for a Democrat to get elected to the Senate in Kentucky in the current political climate.