Maybe if Aiken ran in 2016 he could have won with enough black turnout from the district and the fact that voter registration has a majority of Democrats there (including plenty who are probably moderates and centrists like Aiken), but not in 2014. Disgruntled Crisco voters I would imagine will just stay at home and there will be a lot more dropoff vote, so I think it's nearly impossible for Aiken to beat Ellmers, but I'd still call it likely R given how weak of an incumbent she is and the risk of possibly making a bunch of homophobic slurs during the campaign towards Aiken that could backfire on her.
Dude, Crisco was an infinitely stronger candidate and he still would've lost. Ellmers will either go the way of John Sullivan (get beaten in the primay by a some dude type) or stick around until at least the next redistricting.
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