LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The fearful five

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Landrieu's son has been arrested for DWI and hit-n'-run.

Link

I think he knows more about this than the senator from South Dakota who doesn’t have a border with Mexico, but only Canada and that is quite different.





Haha.

Would you mind clarifying this post, I am not sure what you're even talking about (unless you mean Mike Crapo from Idaho, although I don't see why Idaho bordering Canada and not Mexico matters).  If that was what you meant though, you're right that it was quite different since in that case the Senator actually did something wrong

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LA-06: Rick Ward just dropped out.

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/08/rick_ward_drops_out_of_6th_dis.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

R+21.

That's what I thought   At least it'll be a fun election

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

It depends on who he would make it to runoff with. People really like him.

Wait so he could conceivably win, despite how Republican a district it is?  Who would he have to be in the run-off with and how likely is it that he'll face a candidate who could lose this, Miles?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wait so he could conceivably win, despite how Republican a district it is?  Who would he have to be in the run-off with and how likely is it that he'll face a candidate who could lose this, Miles?

Possibly any of the lower-tier Republicans. I'm not saying he'd win even then, but with someone like Edwards, it kinda goes beyond what the statistics would suggest on paper.

Yes, he and his wife like publicity, but he was polling the district for a few weeks now. He obviously saw at least something promising from that if he's running.

So has this race basically entered "who the ____ knows" territory then?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rats are fleeing this sinking Titanic.

Link


Only one-third of North Carolina registered voters approve of Sen. Kay Hagan's job performance, her lowest rating in a year, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

Hagan was the only politician in the poll whose job approval rating dropped since November. President Barack Obama, Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr all achieved at least modest gains. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they disapproved of Hagan's job performance, her worst rating in a year.

So in your analogy, North Carolinians are rats? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Predictions for major races (would also like to hear Miles' thoughts):

NC Senate: While I still desperately hope that this goes to a runoff between Tillis and Brannon, I think Tillis will win the nomination outright with about 43%.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Brannon (and perhaps even Harris) over-perform and Tillis only avoids a runoff by the absolute skin of his teeth.  I really hope I'm wrong and Tillis gets stuck in a runoff though.

NC-2 (R): Ellmers wins by an underwhelming margin and Roche reaches the very low 40s.

NC-2 (D): Crisco beats Aiken by a wider than expected margin.  Not only is Crisco probably a stronger candidate, but I've read (forget where, it may've even been in an article posted here) that the local consensus is that Aiken's been running a less than impressive campaign and it is starting to be seen as a celebrity vanity campaign.  I'm not very confident about this prediction though.

NC-3: Walter Jones wins the primary, but this will be his closest primary victory yet (though he should still win by nine or ten points, at worst).

NC-6: Phil "Miles' bane" Berger Jr. barely avoids a runoff.  

NC-7: David Rouzer wins, but only by a very narrow margin due to regional voting.

NC-12: It seems like George Battle III has the momentum for the runner-up spot.  It may be too little, too late, but I'm going to be optimistic and predict that Battle narrowly edges out Graham and faces Alma Adams in the runoff.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Landrieu is probably toast if she wasn't already.  Fortunately, Hagan and Pryor look like they'll win at this point

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Landrieu is probably toast if she wasn't already.  Fortunately, Hagan and Pryor look like they'll win at this point

This is sarcastic?

Nope

She was in trouble before this due and needed everything to go right, this is a pretty big deal as Roberts and Luger have proven and it'll do more than she can afford.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senate Democrats are epic HPs for thinking Keystone XL will somehow save Landreiu instead of approving as many judges as possible.