IL-12: Plummer with a large lead

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We Ask America does tend to have a big Republican lean.  While this should certainly be a competitive race, I suspect that the Democrats will end up holding it (although I could see the Republicans picking it up before the end of the decade).  Plummer is actually a much weaker candidate than he might appear on paper and there has been at least one noteworthy interview in which he came across as extremely inarticulate, confused, and ill-informed.  Also, Plummer may be benefiting from higher name recognition from the 2010 campaign, something that should change as Enyart becomes more well known.  I also haven't gotten a sense yet of how strong a campaigner Enyart is proving to be (it may be too early to say or maybe someone else can elaborate on this).  Lastly, we should remember that Harriman was the solid favorite over Plummer before he dropped out.  I think IL-12 is in some ways very similar to the IL-13 race, except the positions of the two parties are reversed.  I expect neither seat to change hands this cycle despite both being competitive races.  However, I could also easily see both seats changing hands before the end of the decade.