FBI Reviewing Clinton emails news: LATEST - Emails from Weiner investigation

[ursulahx]

I'd just like to remind everyone that Trump was already starting to recover in the polls before this announcement. So if the media tell you that any improvement is down to the email scandal, take it with a pillar of salt.

Have we all strapped our diapers back on, then? Yes?

[ursulahx]

I think we can safely conclude that if the Clinton camp don't release any oppo on Trump this weekend (by whatever means), that means they've got nothing.

[ursulahx]

With any luck, this will yank some complacent Clinton supporters who thought this was a done deal into actually going and voting for her.

[ursulahx]

Watch to see if Clinton pulls out of Arizona on Wednesday or not. The internal numbers will let them know if this is playing, and if they need to shore up elsewhere.

[ursulahx]

Dave Wasserman has just tweeted - correctly - that we have consistently overrated the effect of every 'bombshell' on the polls.

[ursulahx]

I went to have dinner and this thread has doubled in length since - and probably halved in importance.

[ursulahx]

The election is already basically set. This really shouldn't change much of anything in the long run. As I've said, at worst there's the 272 firewall which won't overturn over this. Just means a smaller win.

Would be a smaller win than some are expecting anyway, with disaffected Republicans gradually and reluctantly turning back to Trump to stop Clinton. Polls were going to tighten with or without this - but probably not by much, either way.

[ursulahx]

Just posted by Greg Sargent:



EDIT: Here's the source for that, it wasn't written by Sargent: https://www.lawfareblog.com/memo-press-what-comeys-letter-does-and-doesnt-mean

[ursulahx]

It could be that the only person negatively affected by this news in the end is Comey.

[ursulahx]

So Republicans keep both houses of Congress, Hillary wins but only in a nail-biter, enabling Trumpistas to semi-plausibly claim that the system and the elections is rigged,making her a lame duck on Day 1.

Wonderful.  

It's a bit silly to make this kind of assumption without seeing (a) any polling data and (b) how the story plays out and is reported over the next 24 hours.

[ursulahx]

So Republicans keep both houses of Congress, Hillary wins but only in a nail-biter, enabling Trumpistas to semi-plausibly claim that the system and the elections is rigged,making her a lame duck on Day 1.

Wonderful.  

I think more likely Democrats win the Senate, Republicans keep the house, Hillary wins by somewhere between Obama '12 and Obama '08 numbers. You know, basically what everyone has predicted since June.

[ursulahx]

So Republicans keep both houses of Congress, Hillary wins but only in a nail-biter, enabling Trumpistas to semi-plausibly claim that the system and the elections is rigged,making her a lame duck on Day 1.

Wonderful.  

It's a bit silly to make this kind of assumption without seeing (a) any polling data and (b) how the story plays out and is reported over the next 24 hours.

Granted I am venting my frustration, but even if you look at this story in the cold light of logic, this won't play well for the Clinton campaign and congressional Democrats.  It remains to be seen how much damage this story will cause.

That's right, it remains to be seen. Instead you jumped to the worst possible conclusion.

Look, I'm not saying this news didn't make me nervous as well, of course it did. But I've been round this block enough times to know that you have to watch how big the ripples are from each splash before you start panicking. Quite often those ripples aren't as big as they first seem (this was even true of the Access Hollywood tape).

[ursulahx]

Well we're not getting 20+ posts per minute on this thread today so that's a good sign for the direction this "story" is headed at least.

Well, it could simply reflect the fact that no new information has come out, including no new polling information.

[ursulahx]

You guys realise no-one watches CNN?

Or indeed news channels in general. And the few people that do decided who they were voting for months ago.

How do most people get their news in the US? Genuinely curious.

Family and friends, like most of us.

[ursulahx]

Someone on Twitter pointed out how convenient it was that Comey broke this the very next day after Chaffetz re-endorsed Trump. Which led me to think on how handy it was for Trump that the story broke on Friday lunchtime, meaning it would fester all weekend and show in the polls by Monday morning.

I'm slow to ascribe things to conspiracy, but it is all very... well, interesting...

(If we were to go down this path further, we might speculate that this rather weak bombshell might have been an attempt to bounce the Clinton campaign into dropping any more oppo that they might have, before they wanted to do it. I guess only hindsight will give us any clues on that one.)

[ursulahx]

From Seven news Melbourne: 'trump is back in the race because of clinton's emails.

Would it be ok if I punched out my tv and everyone involved?

British media pretty much in on the same circus act, alas.