Trump says he is going to win through wave of silent supporters

[ursulahx]

Brexit is such a hopeless analogy. While there are some superficial similarities - anti-establishment feeling among 'marginalised' voters being the foremost - there are too many differences to list.

It's true that Leave had a small lead in most of the polls, but there was a swing to Remain in the last few days which lured many Remainers like myself into a false sense of security (although I never felt entirely secure). Turned out that the phone poll modelling favoured Remain and didn't account for the higher turnout on both sides. I naively assumed that the status quo would prevail, as usually happens, but in this case the undecideds broke for Leave.

It's possible that the undecideds may break more for Trump, but it's questionable whether there are enough of them to overcome his massive deficit.

[ursulahx]

I believe there was a sympathy bump in the last few days for Jo Cox after her death that immediately dissipated which I believe is correct because that was not going to sway anybody from their actual beliefs. Polls right before Cox's death were dead on.

I think it's possible that the murder made it less socially acceptable to admit you were a Leave voter. This is partly backed up by the fact that the online polls were more accurate than the phone polls. Having said that, the online polls were closer to the final result all the way through, so maybe this wasn't a factor?

What's interesting is that the number of people who regret voting Leave now exceeds the margin by which Leave won. We're lucky; over here we still have the opportunity to put this terrible mistake right, or at least mitigate its consequences. If America elects Trump, there'll be no such chance for a re-think.

[ursulahx]

Politico can't resist one more bit of clickbait nonsense:

https://t.co/z9rrdoBTih

tl;dr - Brexit, therefore Trump! (Give me strength...)

[ursulahx]

Online polls in particular showed "Leave" was the favorite. People who thought Brexit was a clear favorite were only the pundits and betting market.

Also, the difference between Brexit and General Election is that one is a referendum and has many more swing voters that vote based on mood.

Conservatives outperform on referendum or propositions for whatever reasons. Brexit is closer to Prop 8 than it is to General Elections.

Also different composition of electorate, fact that the UK consists of four states (so to speak) rather than fifty, we weren't voting for a personality, long history of difficult relationship with EU, class issues which even outweigh those in the States, polling in this country isn't as good, etc, etc, etc, there are just so many differences that the analogy doesn't start to stand up.