Can you Democrats please stop panicking?

[ursulahx]

I'm ursulahx and I endorse the OP.

Seriously, everything FPG says is true. I'm not saying I'm not worried, because there is a huge (yuuuge?) amount at stake in this election, but I realise that any sense of panic I have is irrational and not borne out by the facts.

[ursulahx]

It's a fact long established by research that human beings tend to overestimate the risk of something bad happening, the worse the consequences of that bad thing are. For example, people are scared of flying because airplane crashes can result in hundreds of deaths and wreckage strewn across the countryside - even though the risk of such a crash happening is extremely small. But the same people don't think twice about crossing the street, even though they are statistically more likely to die that way.

Similarly, a Trump presidency would be so unspeakable (even many Republicans agree with this) that the risk of it becomes greatly inflated in people's imaginations. This is a man who has led in hardly any polls, has an electoral college and demographic disadvantage right off the blocks, is a walking powder keg, has no ground game, has a campaign organisation at loggerheads internally, and appears to have no knowledge of how to govern. No serious presidential candidate has been this atrocious.

In normal circumstances you wouldn't bet a cent on him; and there is no reason to suspect these are not normal circumstances. But people become terrified because he is just so awful, so they assume his victory is near-inevitable. You should see the hand-wringing over here in the UK.

[ursulahx]

I've just been telling a friend that I am supremely confident in a Clinton victory based on data, fundamentals, and several other factors. I also observed that, despite this, I am kept awake at night.

[ursulahx]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

[ursulahx]

Of course you should be panicking. This election is coming down to one state- Colorado. Whoever wins Colorado, wins the election.

True. Depending on what happens in North Carolina. Oh, and Nevada. Oh, and Maine. Oh, and...etc.

[ursulahx]

I'm panicking because Hillary needs to win by a lot.

If she wins by less than 5, we will be entering a very dark age in US politics.

You do realise that's happening regardless. If Republicans can see past Trump and still vote for him, then they can reasonably nominate anyone for local or national office.

If he loses in a landslide, they will understand that nominating people like him is not a viable strategy.

If he loses narrowly, they'll rationalize it away and try again in 2020. And maybe win.

'They' are GOP primary voters. And a 20 point loss wouldn't put them off because they are disconnected from the mainstream.

Lot of truth in this. Remember most of the people who elected Trump nominee will still be around to vote for him or his equivalent in 2020.

[ursulahx]

It would help if Dave Wasserman wasn't posting concern-troll tweets every five minutes.

(I'm not even going to mention Silver, who seems to be rooting for a Trump win now.)