I think the map, despite being hyped up with RE-ALIGNMENT POSSIBILITIES, will be massively disappointing. Clinton does about a point and a half to a point better, and gains North Carolina. This is achieved by most places trending Clinton while only a few, like Ohio and Iowa, trending to TRUMP. This is the ultimate Most Likely Scenario in my mind.
I'm assuming 50% Clinton, 45.3% Trump, 3.1% Johnson, 1.1% Stein, and about a half a percent to scattered others.
This seems sensible, except I'd push Johnson's %age up a little, and Clinton's down a little. But of course a lot comes down to turnout, and her GOTV operation may give her a little boost.
Even the above though seems pretty pessimistic re Clinton's chances.
