538 Model Megathread

[ursulahx]

He also retweeted this earlier they came up with comparing models....

Here's the thing - I would far rather have a model with high confidence. A model with low confidence, however fast to react it is, is pretty much worthless IMO.

Which is why Silver's constant "Trump can win, y'know!" concern trolling is really annoying me (that, and the whole "Trump can win" part of it, obviously...).

[ursulahx]

Is North Carolina really going to vote to the left of Ohio and Iowa?

I think the McCrory factor may play into this one. Plus a competitive Senate race, whereas Strickland has been hopeless in Ohio.

[ursulahx]

If we get just one or two small Clinton leading-in-Ohio polls, then I suspect that 538 will flip Ohio to Hillary-blue in their "Polls-Only forecast" model.
It is so close to the tipping point right now (Oct 1st, 2pm Eastern), that anything positive for her should shift it in her favor.

That Selzer poll seems to be part of the problem.

[ursulahx]

As of this morning, Iowa is now blue in the Nowcast, at 48% Clinton in Polls Only.

Even in Polls-Plus Iowa is on a knife-edge, only slightly leaning Trump. I'd written this state off.

[ursulahx]

Feet on the ground, folks; still over a month to go.

[ursulahx]

Has the race tightened? Yeah, slightly. Will it make a difference? Not much.

[ursulahx]

Silver got burnt by Brexit, the UK general election and the primaries. He's desperate not to get this one wrong, so he's hedging his bets. You should hear him on the podcast, dissing all the other models who have Clinton at 90%.

If Clinton wins he can relax, no damage done. If Trump wins, he will look like the star player. Quite smart, in a way.

[ursulahx]

Now I think about it, when Silver went on a mini-rant during a recent podcast, emphasising how big he thought Trump's chance of winning was, he sounded genuinely scared. I wonder if he sees it as part of his mission to get Democrats to take the threat seriously and go out and vote. If so, I can't help feeling there are better ways of doing it.

[ursulahx]

Nate is getting salty.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthew Dowd @matthewjdowd
How do sketchy states polls have more impact on "data" odds sites (like 538) in this election than actual early vote results?  Bizarre.


Nate Silver @NateSilver538
32s
Next time we'll try the tried-and-true method of making sh**t up as we go along.

One of the enduring legacies of this election will be the increasing thinning of Nate Silver's skin.

Unless Trump wins, of course, then he'll have bragging rights until the day he dies.

[ursulahx]

Enten tweeted that he agrees with Jon Favreau's prediction of C+5. That sounds a good deal more confident than 66% to me.