Depends what you mean by "fight." Since I enjoy making accurate predictions, I wouldn't have been like "OMGZ McGOVERN MOMENTUM" on October 31, 1972.
Lets see a daily tracker from that day? Their certainly is tightening in the polls at this point. Remember, Truman was down by five eight days out and won by five.
Daily Tracker Table - October 31, 2008
| Poll Name | Obama | McCain | Margin | Change | Observation | |
| Zogby | 50.1% | 43.1% | O+7.0% | O+0.1% | It's Zogby! |
| Rasmussen | 50.86% | 46.89% | O+3.97% | M+0.70% | Haven't checked today's sample yet. |
| Battleground | 49% | 45% | O+4% | O+1% | Slight move down for McCain. |
| Hotline | 48% | 41% | O+7% | O+1% | Ditto. |
| R2000/DKos | 51% | 45% | O+6% | O+1% | Ditto. |
| NOT UPDATED |
| Gallup |
| Expanded | 51% | 44% | O+7% | NC | Kind of odd sample bumped on. |
| Traditional | 50% | 45% | O+5% | O+2% | |
| IBD/TIPP | 47.7% | 43.6% | O+4.1% | O+1.1% | Looks like a good Obama sample bumped on. |
| ABC/WP | 52% | 44% | O+8% | O+1% | Nothing much going on here. |
| POLLS AVERAGE | 49.79% | 44.20% | O+5.59% | O+0.48% | Not fully updated yet. |
at least going via past results, Rasmussen probably has the best track record over the past four years. According to Rasmussen, Obama hasn't dropped down below 50% for over a month (he remains stuck around 50-52%) while McCain was finally able to breach the 47% mark two days ago (while remaining stuck around 44-46% for about a month). If you want to call that tightening, go ahead, but it's not going to make much of a difference. Especially when Obama has a virtual lock on the EC at this point. McCain has to win PA (where he's never lead in a poll. and the state hasn't gone below the (D) national average since 1948 iirc), hold on to VA (where he trails badly), NV (trails), OH (trails in 6 out of the last 7 polls taken including Rasmussen and SurveyUSA), FL (also trails in like 5 out of the last 6 polls taken, including Rasmussen), MO (tied), and NC (tied). And then there's IN, MT, GA and AZ where he's favored, yet leads by a lot smaller margins than comfortable. So, I mean, by all means, you can assert that McCain has a 50-50 shot at this point, but it's not intellectually defensible (as well as probably based upon a phenomenon that hasn't been proven).
Poll
