CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
No, it is indeed dumb to give to much credit to one datapoint, but the poll itself not (if you adjust for house effect).
The same with Pew. It showed that Clinton lost 5 pps. Is it true? No way. Some of this can be explained by noise. But daily polls have smaller sample and get released every day, why the noise is much more obvious [and irritating for those who don't understand how it works].
But it is NORMAL to have noise.
Nate Silver:
