CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If we average today's 4 polls, Hillary leads by 3.8% in the 2-way match and by 5% in the 4-way.

Still very 2012-like.

Yepp. 3 of 4 polls were D "leaning" though, but yes, I would say, that Hillary have a 3-5 percentage lead right now.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I am not obsessing over D/R/I to skew or unskew anything.

My argument is simple: If the election ends up with a D+5 sample, Hillary! wins. If the consensus gets the electorate to around D+2 or D+3, Trump wins. It's really that simple. I am not concerned as much with breakdowns for sub-groups, etc. as they roll into that number at the end of the day.

Basically, this election will be about Trumps strongest base - NON-college-educated Whites, that stand for 30% and had very low turn-out 57% (vs 77% amond college-educated Whites).

If he'd trully energizez them to go and vote, he might win.