🇦🇺 Australian Indigenous Voice to Parliament Referendum (October 14th)

[Pericles]

This really shouldn't be too much to ask, a consultative body with non-binding powers is really basic. Given how appalling racial inequality is and the history of Aborigines not being listened to, it is reasonable to require at least some consideration. This is also about the symbolism-Australia should demonstrate they want to do something about racial injustice.

[Pericles]

It's pretty obvious that in most settler colonial countries, the indigenous population is still significantly worse off than the majority and this is indisputably linked with the legacy of colonialism. In Australia, this is obviously true-Australian democracy does not work as well for Aboriginal Australians as it does for the rest of the population. They are around 30% of Australia's prison population for example, despite being around 3% of the general population, and around 10 years less in life expectancy (a gap which is shockingly widening, so Australia is not naturally trending towards progress and racial equality). These much worse outcomes are reflected pretty much across the board as is.

The Voice isn't going to eliminate these gaps, but the chance that it will make a difference is worth taking imo.

It is not about feeling guilty about the past. We do need to understand history though and then fix the problems that exist right now so that racism is eliminated (as much as possible) as a fact of life in society, rather than just making the laws 'anti-racist' and leaving it that.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Yes vote is a bit softer than the No vote.

The topline data suggests the yes campaign for the voice remains in trouble. More poll respondents report being a hard no (41%) at this stage than a hard yes (30%).

But some voters remain open to persuasion. The poll asks people to identify whether their view on the constitutionally enshrined representative body for Indigenous Australians is fixed or flexible. At the moment 12% characterise their support as a soft yes, 7% say they are a soft no, while 10% are unsure.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/04/more-voters-intend-to-vote-no-to-indigenous-voice-despite-yes-campaign-launch-essential-poll-finds

Plus there is the risk that undecideds lean towards No in a referendum like this.

[Pericles]

'Fair call' for Albo to say First Nations men more likely to go to prison than university

It doesn't look like this referendum will change anything and mean these problems are taken more seriously, but obviously there is a real issue here.

[Pericles]

'Fair call' for Albo to say First Nations men more likely to go to prison than university

It doesn't look like this referendum will change anything and mean these problems are taken more seriously, but obviously there is a real issue here.

Very funny that this statistic is used as evidence of oppression (unless the claim is that Australian police are going around arresting, and the courts convicting, large numbers of innocent people).

So you think that Aborigines are just 30 times more likely to be criminals? These issues appear across the world and have been well-studied. Racism, racial bias, and historic disadvantage do affect people throughout their lives.

Personal responsibility is important at the individual level but yes, people are influenced by their circumstances. It is also wrong to try and make societal issues the fault just of the individuals involved.

[Pericles]

The teal seats voting Yes shows how bad of a fit the Liberals are for them. On the other hand, most seats look like a bad fit for Labor on that logic lol. It is interesting though to see which Labor seats had disproportionately high No votes. A lot of these were less-educated, working-class outer suburbia-the kind of places that have been more marginal in the two ScoMo elections. It looks like the Coalition path will run through there, rather than through well-educated suburbia-which is hardly surpirising but it is nice to have more useful data points.

[Pericles]

The teal seats voting Yes shows how bad of a fit the Liberals are for them. On the other hand, most seats look like a bad fit for Labor on that logic lol. It is interesting though to see which Labor seats had disproportionately high No votes. A lot of these were less-educated, working-class outer suburbia-the kind of places that have been more marginal in the two ScoMo elections. It looks like the Coalition path will run through there, rather than through well-educated suburbia-which is hardly surpirising but it is nice to have more useful data points.

The margins for those seats aren’t there yet, it will take a two election cycle which would be a good plan for the libs tbh

Big swings are certainly possible (and enough are already marginal to hurt Labor), though it probably requires them to be in an election-winning position. The other part would be the WA swing unwinding, which looks pretty plausible and this divide probably helps with that. Dutton isn't an appealing guy, but I wouldn't rule it out if the cost of living crisis is still going on in 2025. I think Albanese has got lucky political timing being a first-term PM and not being up until 2025, like how he had lucky timing in 2022 too.

[Pericles]

Come on Australia.
Post-referendum polling shows 47% of voters (80% of whom voted No) do not think First Nations people face more discrimination than whites, 25% think whites are more discriminated