Anyone else feeling so confused by this cycle?

[Pericles]

Honestly, 2020 felt harder to predict for me. While this year could end up better than expected for Democrats, I don’t think the range of outcomes is nearly as large as it seemed for 2020. I’m guessing the GCB will be between R+4 and EVEN, though I could be wrong.

2020 was a mindf**k, a comfortable Democratic win even if it was a bit less than 8 points made complete sense and then the polls were somehow way more wrong than they were in 2016.

[Pericles]

Honestly, 2020 felt harder to predict for me. While this year could end up better than expected for Democrats, I don’t think the range of outcomes is nearly as large as it seemed for 2020. I’m guessing the GCB will be between R+4 and EVEN, though I could be wrong.

2020 was a mindf**k, a comfortable Democratic win even if it was a bit less than 8 points made complete sense and then the polls were somehow way more wrong than they were in 2016.

I wouldn’t call 2020 a comfortable Dem win by any stretch. Biden only narrowly flipped five states by less than 3% each (3 of those states by less than 1%). And Democrats were widely expected to expand the majority in the House, not lose seats. The Senate was also a clear underperformance up until the Georgia runoffs, with Maine and North Carolina being relatively unexpected GOP wins. MT and IA were arguably seen as tossups by many too, even if in hindsight it was obvious they were too red.

No I mean that it did not feel like Biden was going to scrape home by a 0.6% margin, though somehow winning the Georgia runoff afterwards was a miracle.