Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Pericles]

To be cruel Braverman is getting the right wing fossils whereas Badenoch is getting the right wing idiots in the 2019 intake.

I very much feel Shapps is running in the hope of securing a better job

Shapps is genuinely convinced he will be PM. He even said so in 2017 when he was behind a failed attempt to remove Theresa May.

He's pretty hypocritical for saying he's been loyal to incumbent PMs.

[Pericles]

Now that Wallace is out, Sunak looks like the safest choice, but is still very beatable by Labour. I do like that he is less keen on tax cuts than the others, that would just make it even harder to help desperately underfunded public services and could be inflationary. Unfortunately even he will be slightly to the right of Boris policy-wise, maybe excluding Brexit.

As a Tory MP, I would consider Tugendhat though. He is extremely unknown but would also offer much more of a fresh start, though unlike the people voting in the contest for me him being more of a Remainer is a good thing. Hunt could be one of the least bad options as Prime Minister but he doesn't seems to have limited appeal to the party base and to the public.

[Pericles]

Interested to get other peoples’ take on Hunt announcing he wants Esther McVey as Deputy PM. I get that he’s trying to broaden his appeal, but I think there’s a natural limit to how far you can plausibly stretch your ideology, before you lose credibility and alienate your own base.

I’m reminded of John Redwood endorsing Ken Clark over William Hague in 1997, in return for being named Shadow Chancellor, and tanking Clark’s credibility in the process.

She seems like such a low profile and politically weak person that this supposed unity pick just shows how Hunt doesn't have anyone better supporting him.

[Pericles]

Interesting just how many of the candidates appear to be non-white. That happening in say the Republican Party (in a country with a bigger non-white population) would be unthinkable.

If anything, it could be happening there too where a right-wing electorate is so annoyed at being called racists that they want to use their choice of candidate to rebut it. The Conservative Party appears to have done more to ensure its candidate selection process produces diverse candidates so that its parliamentary party does look more like the country it wants to represent.

[Pericles]

I’ve become increasingly convinced it’ll be Mordaunt, short of any skeletons in her closet or Williamson dirty tricks (Williamson does personally hate her aside from wanting to get Sunak elected).

I don't know, she just seems to unknown among the general membership.

Which could prove to be an advantage, feels just a bit like Major in 1990 at the minute.

Or David Cameron in 2005. I wonder which was more unknown, though it is different and maybe more of an obstacle when the winner becomes Prime Minister immediately.

[Pericles]

What a strange decision by Hunt to endorse Sunak.

The only other option for their wing is Mordaunt and both have similar chances of victory, so it's one of those high risk high reward gambles, surely?

[Pericles]

It is quite a mystery why the right of the party like Truss (a Remain-voting, socially liberal ex-Lib Dem republican) so much, especially given how they saw Theresa May (who was probably less enthusiastic about Remain and probably less socially liberal and certainly more of a monarchist and more of a staunch lifelong Tory than Truss).

Theresa May did fool them until she actually had to make hard choices negotiating the Brexit deal. Truss however comes across as a pure opportunist, Remain was best for her career then and being a Brexiter is the trend now.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1549130737726767107

Her Twitter profile picture makes her look like a villain imo. Though it's not as unflattering as Donald Trump's, but that was on-message for him.

There could be a big incentive for an MP with a bit of heft to back either Truss or Mordaunt, because both are in a very close race to get to the membership vote while Sunak has a place on the ballot in the bag. They have so much more leverage than over Sunak that they could get a good cabinet position out of backing one candidate at the right time.

[Pericles]

I can't see how Truss is supposed to be more appealing than Mordaunt, even if Mordaunt risks coming across as a lightweight. It's looking pretty likely that the Tories will end up regretting this leadership change and it will haunt them maybe even more than the Thatcher one did, though Boris was in fact toxic due to Partygate and his lack of grip and direction.

[Pericles]

There a number of big names who aren't committed to one of the final candidates:

• Priti Patel
• Ben Wallace
• Sajid Javid
• Nadhim Zahawi
• Tom Tugendhat
• Kemi Badenoch
• Michael Gove

I expect we'll see most wait until the run-off, if they endorse at all, but in a contest like this, I don't think you can rule out a last minute intervention by a big beast of the party.

As I was saying, these people could try and gamble on getting either Truss or Mordaunt to the membership. The candidates need their support much more now so surely they can get a great offer for it.

[Pericles]

It hasn't really been discussed, but is there not another issue that Sunak has amongst the Tory membership? Not as much of an issue as it would have been 20 or 30 years ago, but still enough to push his support down by a few percent perhaps.

The Tories clearly want their model minority so they can think of themselves as tolerant without changing any policies, but Sunak just had to actually be Chancellor instead of giving them red meat all the time.

[Pericles]

Opinium have it 61-39 in favour of Truss. Not as bad as some other polls, but a significant minority have voted and most of the rest say they’ve made their mind up so there’s basically no hope for Sunak. They also asked about why people are supporting each candidate and 2/3 of the top Truss reasons had nothing to with her (she’s not Sunak and she backed Johnson to the end). Both candidates would lose to Johnson in a landslide if he was allowed to stand.

Tory MPs are really grateful they don't have the Labour Party's rules at the moment.

[Pericles]

How so? Even the 2016 Labour leadership election wasn't the same as somebody standing again after *having already resigned*. Corbyn would have been ineligible had he did that then (which is of course a major reason why he didn't)

Major did of course do that with the Tories in 1995, after which said loophole was closed.

Boris would have not resigned but stood again if he had any way to stay leader, he clearly wanted it so badly.

[Pericles]

'This has been a Party Election broadcast by the Labour Party'

That sums up this whole leadership contest.

[Pericles]

Labour Party predicts double-digit poll bounce for new PM Truss

I just know the sickos will freak out about this, Starmer just needs to persevere and he should be in a great position to win the next general election.

[Pericles]

57% isn't that strong of a mandate and a bit below late expectations, but Sunak also embarrassed himself by not even coming that close to winning after years of hype for him. He could easily fly off to California now. It is hard to see how this leadership election helped the Tories, even though Boris was so unpopular at the end.