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« on: June 20, 2022, 08:31:53 PM » |
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GA might be a bit easier because of its inelasticity, but there and in AZ, NV and PA, the Democrats basically have no margin to lose. If there is a nearly 10 point swing from 2020, that is a huge gap for candidate quality to make up. Plus, even if Republicans choke in one race, they don't have these candidate quality problems in NH which is a very winnable race, even if it isn't a likely win like the others. Most importantly, NV candidate quality isn't a significant factor, so that's a probable pickup. With a net gain of 1, Republicans can pick only one of GA, AZ, or NH to be able to afford losing one seat, or just not lose any seats. It could come into play if the environment significantly improves from where it is, but right now, it's just mitigating losses.
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