NJ 2020 results versus 2016

[Pericles]

Trump made gains with Hispanics nationwide, so it's not shocking that this also happened in New Jersey. It still isn't clear why he got such strong swings with Hispanics-some theories are that voters are now polarising along ideological and educational lines instead of racial ones (Trump does seem to have won minority voters who already had conservative views), an anti-lockdown backlash (why this would cause such a difference in swings based on race is unclear though), Hispanics always swing to the incumbent (true but it doesn't explain the extent of the swing), and Trump's overall image being appealing without him focusing as much on immigration that turned these voters off (maybe). There are probably some other theories and more detailed and nuanced explanations. One thing worth noting is that while this swing is still weird, it was predictable from looking at the polling crosstabs in 2020 that showed Trump making big gains with Hispanics. Unfortunately looking at the crosstab averages isn't foolproof, we were supposed to have big swings among seniors and non college-educated whites to Biden (the latter was polling to the left of both the 2016 polls and results), but that didn't happen.