UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Pericles]

LibDems know how to win by-elections, what a monster swing again.

[Pericles]

How long until somebody uses the words 'Long Corbyn' to explain this by-election defeat?

[Pericles]

Uxbridge is a sign that UK voters are volatile-yes, Labour is up by 20+ points but this isn't some permanent realignment. This was already obvious, and the Tories are highly unlikely to be able to form a government after the next election regardless. It reminds us that just as the Tory landslide evaporated, whatever victory (landslide or narrow) Labour wins can disappear for any random reason if the electorate feel they are screwed over by the either party. So, not exactly encouraging for anyone-but the goal is just 'be great at your jobs' I guess.

[Pericles]

The SNP are in deep trouble, wow. What a great result-each time just keeps getting better and better for Labour!

[Pericles]

It's insane how this government is so unpopular that comfortable Labour victories are now the boring, expected outcome in by-elections even in deeply Tory seats.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
As they say - big if true.

Lol at the LibDem spin trying to take credit for Labour's victory.

[Pericles]

Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government.

[Pericles]

The Tories are so unpopular and f**ked, and Sunak is so unpopular, that I could even see a leadership change emerging as an option again. I doubt they'd go for it, they don't have anyone better and there is a lot of downside risk to go through it a third time. The Tories are in a dark place though, MPs are going to be desperate and in despair.

[Pericles]

Andrew Bowie had the hilarious line that people are supportive of what the Conservative Government is doing, they�re just not prepared to come pout and vote for them.

In some ways there's a kernel of truth to that but not in the way Bowie is thinking. The Tories are in a mess due to their incompetence and the whiff of death rather than unpopular policies.

Of course that means that they're even more screwed because it means there's basically nothing they can change to turn the ship around.

In some respects the Starmer branding is "the Tory policy approach but we do it competently/get the basic rights", obviously there are serious real policy differences between the parties and we'll have to see how Labour actually does when they return to government next year.

[Pericles]

As a historical note, this parliament has now seen ten seats change hands as a result of by-elections, thus overtaking 1992-1997. You now have to go back to 1970-1974 to find a parliament in which as many seats changed hands (ten as well, although only five were government losses). The government has lost eight seats as a result of by-elections during this parliament, equalling the figure for 1992-1997. Given that we may well have a couple more by-elections coming down the pipeline before the next general election (Messrs Benton and Bone perhaps), this record could well fall and we’ll have to go back as far as 1966-1970 so see a worse rate of loss at by-elections for an incumbent government, when Labour lost fifteen (!) by-elections over the course of the parliament.

Absolutely bonkers that they had a historic by-election gain off Labour in the same parliament, that was pretty much peak Boris right there.

[Pericles]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584
Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

And the Newspaper Headlines: "Boris to live forever", actually Boris to outlast Thatcher.

For someone who studied Greek Classics like Boris, he should have realised his Hybris and the Divine Punishment that follows it.

Imo he was never even that well-liked anyway and he would have lost because of the cost of living crisis anyway, everything else like Partygate and Truss just padded the Labour margin.

[Pericles]

What a huge swing, wow.

[Pericles]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

Especially insane stat from a Parliament that also includes Hartlepool and the Batley near-disaster.