What 2014 Senate Races were winnable for the Democrats? (user search)
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  What 2014 Senate Races were winnable for the Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What 2014 Senate Races were winnable for the Democrats?  (Read 866 times)
Pericles
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« on: December 26, 2020, 07:30:18 PM »

NC, CO and AK were very close so with a slightly better campaign in the states and/or better national environment they could have gone the other way. That would bring it to 51-49. GA wasn't winnable even if it looks competitive, because it is so inelastic. IA might have been winnable if Braley wasn't such a terrible candidate and Ernst ran a great campaign that year too, so effectively Democrats were an 8% margin away from keeping the Senate. LA was too Republican to actually be won again by Democrats. The other states were too Republican to go the other way, though in a Romney midterm with them having incumbents up for re-election they would have been winnable. I'm not sure if Kansas was ever flippable given the margin and its partisanship. Maybe Orman would have won if he promised to caucus with Senate Republicans, but that could have just depressed his vote without growing it much. So 50-50 was probably the best-case scenario for Democrats in a second Obama midterm.
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