The evidence remains strong that Trump is going to continue trailing by ~10 points or more nationally unless something drastically changes with the pandemic situation.
The current Pandemic surge seems to not only be real, but big.
What a disaster it has become. So many could have been saved from sickness and death. It's not going to diminish anytime soon.
trump could have actually benefited if he took everything seriously from day 1. Just look at our neighbor to the north (Canada), and see how well they have handled this Crisis.
In New Zealand, the Labour Party went from losing the election to getting a majority government in the polls because of Jacinda Ardern's amazing response to it that eliminated community transmission (though I don't think Labour would have actually lost regardless).
