538 model & poll tracker thread

[Pericles]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

I don't see why GA should be so R for the Senate. Let's be generous to Republicans and say both are Tilt R, that still means there's a very real possibility at least one race flips. Texas seems underrated too as a competitive race, based on current margins it would probably be a low single digit win for Cornyn.

[Pericles]

When Biden gains in the polls, the polls must be fake and wrong. When Trump gains in polls Biden is doomed to fail. The electoral map is still quite rosy to Biden:

I don't see why GA should be so R for the Senate. Let's be generous to Republicans and say both are Tilt R, that still means there's a very real possibility at least one race flips. Texas seems underrated too as a competitive race, based on current margins it would probably be a low single digit win for Cornyn.

B/C of Georgia going to runoff, and Biden wins most of the time, so the environment is less good for Ds. Osoff can't win outright unless he gets above 50% which is a pretty demanding task in a state as polarized as GA

Abrams got 48.8%, so it's within reach. And we shouldn't assume there will be a runoff dropoff like 2008, Barrow got 48% in his runoff. Especially if Senate control is at stake.

[Pericles]

The popular vote percentages are interesting, it would be pretty funny if Trump got the exact same vote share he got in 2016 but this time lost comfortably.

[Pericles]

My guess is it's underrating Biden. Some of the key factors that made 2016 uncertain and a low estimate of Clinton's chances appropriate-a lot of polling volatility, and high numbers of undecideds and third party voters-are not applicable this year. It seems like the 2012 race is a much better parallel, except Biden's lead is much larger than Obama's.

[Pericles]

I wonder why they still have Trump favored to win NC even though on average Biden wins by 6 points nationally

North Carolina voted 6 points to the right of the nation in 2016, so that is not too far-fetched.

[Pericles]

I don't mind the model as much as I mind the god awful appearance of it as a whole.

I actually like the winding path of electoral votes that visualises the idea of the tipping point state, and it probably is more effective at showing where the race stands than a map where the two sides are at roughly similar land area even if they are at very different levels of electoral votes.