New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

I admittedly don't know too much about New Zealand politics, but this David Seymour guy doesn't sound like he should be taken seriously.

Lol, he's right. New Zealand is 17% Maori and 72% White. It's not a Polynesian country any more than Australia is, or Canada or the US are Native American countries. Should we rename France France-Faransa (Arabic name for France) because 13% of the population is Muslim? Hell, almost as many (15%) New Zealanders are Asian as Maori -- should we make Xīnxīlán (Mandarin) another official name for the country, for the purpose of representation? And even if it was a Polynesian country, why would that make a renaming the right thing to do?

I don’t think France was founded by a treaty between Arabs who already lived there and settlers from away.

Yeah, the Treaty is a key part of New Zealand's history and constitutional structure, the government does try to provide 'active protection' to the Maori population. While our race relations are better than say France, we do still have quite significant inequalities between the different racial groups and while of course there are other things that are correlated to race some of it unfortunately is systemic racism. Aotearoa is already a common term and might actually be a better name than New Zealand but I don't think it would be a good idea to make it the sole name-people can use it if they want and if we want to add it to the current official name that should be fine.

[Pericles]

I admittedly don't know too much about New Zealand politics, but this David Seymour guy doesn't sound like he should be taken seriously.

Lol, he's right. New Zealand is 17% Maori and 72% White. It's not a Polynesian country any more than Australia is, or Canada or the US are Native American countries. Should we rename France France-Faransa (Arabic name for France) because 13% of the population is Muslim? Hell, almost as many (15%) New Zealanders are Asian as Maori -- should we make Xīnxīlán (Mandarin) another official name for the country, for the purpose of representation? And even if it was a Polynesian country, why would that make a renaming the right thing to do?

I don’t think France was founded by a treaty between Arabs who already lived there and settlers from away.

It was founded by Romans making a treaty with Franks. Should we rename France France-Francia then, for a better analogy?

Do I even have to explain why this comparison is wrong?

[Pericles]

The reason that Maori interests are better protected than say Native Americans isn't just the mere fact of the Treaty, it's that NZ society sees these issues differently and so made a choice from the 1970s on especially to take the Treaty seriously. It's a cultural thing, and it's what works for us but I wouldn't presume that having the exact same system would be great for every other country.

Aotearoa is a separate issue, both Aotearoa and NZ are good names and as long as people can use both that's fine by me, indeed that's what many people already have been doing for a long time.

[Pericles]

The first public poll since the lockdown has come out. Labour is on 43% (down 7% on the 2020 election), while National's support has not budged from last year on 26% (and fell since the last poll). The ACT Party are the big winners, on 14% (up 6% since 2020). For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is on 44% with her closest opponent being ACT Party leader David Seymour on 11%, Judith Collins is on a pathetic 5%. It's no wonder, she has had a terrible few weeks with awful interviews, random personal attacks, failure to press a clear message against the government and as a result leadership speculation that drags the party down further. The only relief for National is that it's not as bad as the result their own pollster leaked a few months ago (Labour 46%, National 21%, ACT 15%). However, Collins has clearly failed, and it now looks likely that once the Auckland lockdown ends, she will be replaced as leader-most likely by former leader Simon Bridges.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/david-seymour-overtakes-judith-collins-in-preferred-pm-rankings-1news-colmar-brunton-poll

[Pericles]

The elimination strategy has not been successful against Delta, and has now been abandoned. Auckland's lockdown has now been 7 weeks, yet cases are now increasing slightly, so this lockdown will be the longest New Zealand has had. Now, the government is acknowledging that vaccines will have to replace lockdowns as the tool. However, this process will have to be a transition because not enough people are fully vaccinated (79% eligible first dosed, 48% second dosed). There is an ambitious informal target of 90% of the eligible population, but most likely we'll fall just short. Jacinda Ardern therefore announced a three step roadmap for easing restrictions-

1. From Wednesday, outdoor gatherings of groups of no more than 10 people from no more than 2 households will be allowed. Early childhood centres will reopen. Within the social distancing rules, there will be no restrictions on outdoor recreation in Auckland.
2. This step is not dated but will be assessed next week starting from 7 days time. Here, retail and public facilities will reopen and the outdoor gathering limit will be increased to 25.
3. Similarly, this is not dated. Hospitality and close contact businesses will reopen, with a 50 person limit.

Schools are also scheduled to return after school holidays on 18 October with health measures in place. After the three steps, Jacinda has said that vaccine certificates are likely for crowded indoor events and the details of this will be presented next week.

This is just for the largest city. A snap lockdown was imposed on parts of the Waikato region (unfortunately a detailed map of which areas were in lockdown was not available before the lockdown began and it's not been done in a very simple way) yesterday after 2 cases were discovered that are connected to the Auckland outbreak, which is expected to last for 5 days. The rest of New Zealand remains at level 2 of course, with minor social distancing and mask requirements, even areas that have not had any Covid cases in many months because mass gatherings are believed to be too risky with Delta still spreading anywhere in New Zealand. Otherwise though life is pretty normal for us. The worry is that going forward, our ICU capacity is shockingly weak (and somehow decreased in this pandemic), so we will have to be a bit more careful handling Delta even with high vaccination compared to other countries.

[Pericles]

Zero Covid is a fantasy even in a country like NZ - who knew?

A key distinction needs to be made-outbreaks could be eliminated with the old variants but Delta is the game changer, so we can only suppress it to buy time to vaccinate our population.

[Pericles]

What's the reaction by National/ACT about the abandonment of the elimination strategy?

Every party disliked Jacinda's announcement. National and ACT want clear dates and targets for each step to be activated, rather than the government just weighing up the circumstances and doing what it feels like. So they want a faster easing. The Greens and the Maori Party opposed abandoning elimination and worried about vulnerable communities (though they mean Maori and poorer communities, rather than the elderly), without acknowledging that elimination had been given every chance over the last 7 weeks.

[Pericles]

Our vaccine rollout continues to go strong, beating Australia, the US and the EU in the first dose rate (82% of the eligible). This is now the biggest public health message. First doses have risen slightly over the last week because of rising Covid cases and the abandoning of elimination. There is still more time to go, personally I only became eligible on September 1  and so have not had my second dose or had a few weeks after to get full immunity. Sweeping vaccine requirements will now be imposed in the health and education workforces, which sounds sensible.

Meanwhile, over the last week, the lockdown zone expanded to more regions surrounding Auckland, the Waikato will move back to level 2 on Thursday, and Northland will stay there for at least that time. Step 2 and the school reopening in Auckland has been delayed. So far, we are fortunately not in a situation like Australia with many hundreds or thousands of cases, today was 35 and yesterday was 60.

[Pericles]

The first public poll since the lockdown has come out. Labour is on 43% (down 7% on the 2020 election), while National's support has not budged from last year on 26% (and fell since the last poll). The ACT Party are the big winners, on 14% (up 6% since 2020). For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is on 44% with her closest opponent being ACT Party leader David Seymour on 11%, Judith Collins is on a pathetic 5%. It's no wonder, she has had a terrible few weeks with awful interviews, random personal attacks, failure to press a clear message against the government and as a result leadership speculation that drags the party down further. The only relief for National is that it's not as bad as the result their own pollster leaked a few months ago (Labour 46%, National 21%, ACT 15%). However, Collins has clearly failed, and it now looks likely that once the Auckland lockdown ends, she will be replaced as leader-most likely by former leader Simon Bridges.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/david-seymour-overtakes-judith-collins-in-preferred-pm-rankings-1news-colmar-brunton-poll

could act replace nationals?

I doubt it, the major parties have done badly before but the two-party system is strong. ACT is primarily rising because of National's problems, when they get their act together ACT's support will shrink. Plus, ACT hasn't been properly scrutinised, they can say whatever they want now without regard to the centre voters.

I believe New Zealand's housing market is one of the most expensive in the world, and sadly while I'd hoped that growth would at least slow this year there are no signs of that. I'm happy living here and we're a great country but you're kidding yourself if you think we're perfect.

In some good news, I got my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine today. It's a relief to have immunity and I'm looking forward to us opening up to the world next year.

[Pericles]

Congratulations on your second dose, but I really don't think New Zealand should open to Americans ever again. My country is depraved, and there's a solid floor of 30% that won't get the vaccine no matter what.

That number is much higher than that. Republicans make up about 45% of the country. 100% of Republicans will never get vaccinated for COVID.

Aren’t something like 70% of Americans vaccinated?

77% of those eligible, which could have been good enough but the Delta variant ruthlessly spreads through the clusters of the remaining 23%.

[Pericles]

Yesterday, by 10pm on 'Super Saturday' 129,995 vaccine doses were administered in NZ, smashing through the 100,000 dose target and any previous records here, vaccinating about 2.5% of the total population in a day. The total numbers now stand at 85% of the total eligible first dosed, 65% double-dosed, and 89% in Auckland first dosed.

[Pericles]

The government has just given some more clarity on what the future looks like. They have set a target for the alert level system to end, so both lockdowns and the current alert level 2 restrictions, at 90% of 12+ double-vaccinated. However, this would not be a return to level 1, but instead a 'traffic-light' system that still aims to suppress the virus-while accepting that it cannot be eliminated. This target is not nationwide, but alert level 2 only ends when all regions (assessed by district health boards) achieve it. Auckland's lockdown ends though when its 3 DHBs get 90%, but a hard border then stays between it and the rest of New Zealand. It's not clear whether the original roadmap still applies with the 'steps', I'm guessing Auckland stays at the current restrictions until it hits 90% (or the review of vaccination rates on November 29). The South Island could also move to the green light when/if all its DHBs get to 90%.

So here are what the three traffic lights mean, it's hard to explain so have a look here. This is quite confusing, but Jacinda tried to give a simple message, saying that if people want their everyday freedoms like going to bars, restaurants, gyms, getting haircuts and so on, they should get vaccinated.

It is an interesting approach, hopefully it increases vaccine uptake and once implemented it should keep deaths low. It is also more necessary for New Zealand than most other countries because our ICU capacity is low. However, it feels like this could have been set too high-maybe they thought it was better to be aspirational. Nationwide, based on the government's measure, we are at 86% first-dosed and 68% double-dosed. The Auckland DHBs are very close to 90% already so it may be realistic for them. It doesn't look like anywhere has actually gotten 90% first dose yet (and since not all first doses become second doses they might need to be a bit over). They said there would be a review on November 29, so the vaccine targets could be lowered then. So there is a lot still unclear, but it does look like more freedom is coming and it will be done responsibly. Meanwhile, cases are still increasing, with a record 102 cases yesterday, but that's still pretty low and overall our health outcomes are very good.

[Pericles]

The Waikato will move into 'step 2' of level 3 from Wednesday, and Auckland is set to do the same next Wednesday. This means retail and public facilities can open, while outdoor gatherings can increase to 25 people. It looks like indoor gatherings remain banned. This is quite complicated, especially since it's stepping down somewhere between existing alert levels but is also about moving to the new traffic light system. There were 162 new cases today, but still no deaths, and the government's modelling now suggests daily cases will peak at 200 sometime this month. The Auckland DHBs may just be on track to make the 90% double-dose target, but the rest of the country are unlikely to make it this month.

Meanwhile, Lord Ashcroft from the UK ran a big poll of New Zealand voters that has lots of detailed data about public opinion here. If you're interested, here is the link. One data point that stood out to me was this, I don't think you'd see this in the US or the UK.

[Pericles]

I'm wondering if there will be any constituency for an Auckland localist party, given the disparity between it's lockdown and the rest of the country.

I doubt it, that won't really be something that someone can run on in 2023. Maybe Auckland swings a bit further to the right than the rest of the country.

Related to that, from midnight tomorrow, Auckland will indeed be going to step 2 of the roadmap. 'Upper Northland' has also been in lockdown for the last few days and again goes back to level 2 on Thursday. The Auckland DHBs have all hit 90% first dose, so they'll soon move to the traffic light system, but it's unclear when the entire country does.

[Pericles]

Jacinda Ardern's three year old daughter, Neve interrupted a national address on COVID-19

Working from home can be tricky for parents, even when you're the prime minister of New Zealand.

On Monday night, Jacinda Ardern was giving the nation a live update on changing Covid restrictions when she was interrupted by off-screen calls for “mummy.”

"You're meant to be in bed, darling," Ardern told daughter, Neve, 3.

"Pop back to bed, I'll come and see you in a second."

“Sorry, everybody,” Ardern said as she turned back to her national audience. She laughed off the interruption, following up with, "Well, that was a bedtime fail, wasn't it?"



Ardern, who has been praised for her clear and frequent communication with the public throughout the coronavirus pandemic, joked that she thought she had found a safe time to broadcast.

“Does anyone else have kids escape like three, four times after bedtime?” she asked, noting that fortunately, her mother was there to help.

Toward the end of the eight-minute livestream, Neve could be heard again, wondering what the hold-up was.

“I'm sorry darling it is taking so long,” Ardern said before cutting the livestream short to give bedtime another try.

Awww, that's cute. On a more serious note, I heard that Ardern has personally called the families of all 32 New Zealanders who have died from COVID. Is that true?

I wouldn't be surprised, but I haven't actually heard of that one before or found a source for it.

[Pericles]

A new Colmar Brunton poll has an unsurprising result.
Labour-41% (- 2% on last poll, - 9% on 2020)
National-28% (+2%, +2%)
ACT-14% (_, +6%)
Green-9% (+1%, +1%)
Maori Party-1% (-1%, _)

Jacinda is on 39% as preferred Prime Minister (down 5%), with ACT leader David Seymour as the clear second place on 11%, and Judith Collins on just 5%. Collins' net approval rating is -31%.

In some surprising good news, the Waikato has left lockdown after 6 weeks, going to alert level 2. The government claims the cases there are now all linked and under control. Jacinda has also been signalling in recent days that the traffic light system might come into effect before the 90% double dose target is reached, perhaps when Auckland leaves lockdown on November 29. The government also announced that the booster dose program will start on the same date, and everyone in the 18+ age group who is six months or more from their second dose will be eligible.

[Pericles]

A new Newshub poll also has similar results;
Labour-Labour-42.7% (- 0.3% on last poll, - 7.3% on 2020)
National-26.9% (-1.8%, +1.3%)
ACT-16.0% (+4.9%, +8.4%)
Green-7.2% (-1.3%, -0.7%)
Maori Party-2.1% (+0.2%, +0.9%, _)

The last Newshub poll was in July, so this covers the impact of the lockdown.

The government also announced that on November 29, it will confirm that the entire country will move to the traffic light system. So the Auckland lockdown will likely end just a few days after that, lasting for just over three months. A hard border between Auckland and the rest of New Zealand will remain until December 15. Then, adults will need to be vaccinated or have a negative test to leave Auckland, until January 17 when those restrictions should be lifted. The government has also confirmed that they don't plan to reopen the international border before Christmas, but instead in the 'first quarter' of 2022. New Zealand overall now has 91% of those eligible first dosed, and one of the three Auckland health boards has 90% double dosed. 149 cases were reported today, with 83 people in total in hospital.

[Pericles]

I keep repeating this but these numbers should make labour worry, a change of leadership in the nationals could leave them very vunerable.

Maybe, but you'd expect this to them to having a tough period polling-wise, and they could be helped by the reopening or even just that the election isn't really tomorrow so people don't really respond that way. Plus, while some New Zealand polling is accurate, Labour's support was also underestimated by 4% in the last election and nobody seemed to notice.

[Pericles]

Again, who is this as yet undiscovered person who is going to transform National's fortunes?

They've had a succession of rubbish leaders since Key for a reason.

Some Auckland Backbencher who speaks well and comes off as cosmopolitan ?.(preferably a minority). Surely there is someone in the party that fits the bill. Judith's problem is she comes of as alien towards the cities and too provincial.

There's a real possibility that National can increase their share of vote from immigrant communities if they perceive labour as dragging their foot on ending the MIQ's given the national visible support for ending it.

They have a few people who fit the bill like Erica Stanford, Nicola Willis or Chris Bishop imo, but the problem is they're all too liberal to get elected by the current caucus. National is running on ending MIQ now for fully vaccinated New Zealanders, who arguably are lower risk of spreading Covid than Aucklanders. However, the first quarter is so close anyway that even though it would be tragic to miss Christmas with my family again, I get what the government is saying that they don't want to add to the 'cumulative risk', and keep cases low over summer before reopening.

[Pericles]

The traffic light system will begin on Friday 3 December. I believe that is a 106 day lockdown for Auckland. Fortunately though, the large majority of New Zealand not in Auckland, the Waikato or Northland only had 3 weeks in lockdown despite the arrival of Delta.

[Pericles]

There has been another announcement. The border will open, in three steps. This means that overseas arrivals will no longer need to go through managed isolation (14 days of hotel quarantine). This requirement will be replaced with a requirement that arrivals self-isolate at home for 7 days, have a negative test upon arrival and before leaving isolation, and are fully vaccinated. Hopefully these requirements won't be needed for long, but while it is a cautious reopening, it's still a huge relief to have the end in sight.
1. From January 17, New Zealanders from Australia will be no longer need to go through managed isolation.
2. From February 14, New Zealanders from anywhere in the world can come home without going through managed isolation.
3. From April 30, anyone can travel to New Zealand.
Unite Against Covid-19 NZ info

[Pericles]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/11/newshub-reid-research-poll-simon-bridges-isn-t-ruling-out-another-tilt-at-national-leadership-and-he-s-got-public-s-support.html

I think Simon Bridge might do better this time around than his last time he was leader.

That might not be happening anymore.



What a messy party lmao.

[Pericles]

Judith “Crusher” Collins is out as leader of the National Party

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/456496/live-judith-collins-steps-down-as-ational-party-leader-all-the-latest-updates

Dr. Shane Reti is the interim leader

Deservedly as more info has come to light. Simon Bridges only made a mildly crude remark (not fully clear what it was but it was based on "an old wive's tale" about having a baby apparently) that he apologised for at the time, and then she lied about having the backing of the party board, as well as bypassing her MPs. You wouldn't expect Judith Collins to go down as an ultra-PC feminist, but in her desperation that's how it turned out lol.

[Pericles]

Judith “Crusher” Collins is out as leader of the National Party

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/456496/live-judith-collins-steps-down-as-ational-party-leader-all-the-latest-updates

Dr. Shane Reti is the interim leader

Deservedly as more info has come to light. Simon Bridges only made a mildly crude remark (not fully clear what it was but it was based on "an old wive's tale" about having a baby apparently) that he apologised for at the time, and then she lied about having the backing of the party board, as well as bypassing her MPs. You wouldn't expect Judith Collins to go down as an ultra-PC feminist, but in her desperation that's how it turned out lol.

It also seems the MP involved, the alleged 'victim', did not want Collins to act like this either. She claimed that ""I approached Judith several weeks ago about my concerns and the conversation was in the context of the work I have been doing with the Francis review, and I found myself disclosing my experience," and that it was "not my intention" for it to be handled as it was.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/not-my-intention-dean-disappointed-collins%E2%80%99-move-against-bridges

[Pericles]

Christopher Luxon has been elected leader of the National Party. Nicola Willis, one of the caucus liberals, has been elected Deputy. Simon Bridges dropped out of the leadership race before a vote. Luxon has only been an MP for a year, and is known for being the CEO of Air New Zealand. He has a socially conservative voting record, I think he even voted against safe spaces around abortion clinics, though how important this is to his politics is unclear. Overall, he is pretty unknown (see the Newshub poll), but National made the right move gambling on a fresh start instead of Simon Bridges.