New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

New Zealand scraps Covid rules

The Covid traffic light system has been repealed entirely. The only two rules left are that masks must be worn in healthcare and aged care facilities, and that positive cases must continue to isolate for 7 days. The latter is not really a rule at all, everyone uses rapid antigen tests so it is unenforceable guidance. Everything else is gone.

It has taken a while, but the winter wave has become a light ripple of cases. From tomorrow, New Zealand will be fully back to normal. It's a great day for our country, and such a relief to be done with these Covid rules. Looking back at this point, we can be very proud of how we did, with one of the best responses in the world.

[Pericles]

Sam Uffindell acquitted by National Party

Who knows what really happened but honestly this is a bit of a relief. Sure he's a Nat but the bullying stuff was so long ago that it shouldn't be held against him now imo. Tauranga voters will be relieved not to have two by-elections in one year.

[Pericles]

Preliminary results for the local elections have been released. Since most candidates do not run on party labels, and turnout was poor (around 30% despite many competitive races), it is hard to know what the 'narrative' is. Overall though, it looks like right-wing candidates had a good set of results. In Auckland, brash right-wing outsider Wayne Brown defeated Labour-affiliated Efeso Collins (who would have been the first Pasifika mayor) in a landslide to break the centre-left hold on the mayoralty there. Wellington was a unique case, where former Green Party chief of staff Tory Whanau defeated incumbent centre-right mayor Andy Foster and Labour MP Paul Eagle (who humiliatingly came fourth despite entering the race as the frontrunner).

[Pericles]

Scandal-plagued former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma has resigned from Parliament, causing a by-election in the bellwether seat of Hamilton West. He said he is planning to contest the by-election and form a new centrist party. This is the path taken by one Winston Peters in 1993, but personally I don't think Gaurav has the charisma to do the same. I expect that the National Party will win this electorate, because they are currently polling ahead of Labour and it's a by-election. Obviously, I hope a loyal Labour MP will be elected.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300715341/gaurav-sharma-says-he-has-resigned-as-an-mp-triggering-byelection

[Pericles]

The Labour Party held their annual conference this weekend. I was actually there as a delegate for my local branch of the party, so I have a bit more insight into it than just what has been reported in the media. It's pretty well understood that Labour has fallen from its huge peak in 2020, but the party was energised to fight a close election rather than being resigned to defeat. It was also the first in-person conference since 2019, so the vibe was positive.

They did start to sharpen their message, with Grant Robertson attacking National as "Christopher Luxon and the Trickle Downers" who are trying to "out-Truss Liz Truss". This is because Luxon's biggest policy and his first announcement was repealing the new top tax bracket of 39% that Labour introduced, a policy that would give him at least $349 a week compared to $2.15 extra for minimum wage earners (admittedly this is based on an analysis by the Council of Trade Unions). It wasn't just attacking National as the media claimed, he spent most of his speech talking about Labour's record and boasting about how the deficit and inflation are lower than in most developed countries. The basic narrative is that Jacinda has led New Zealand through crisis and can be trusted to get us through the cost of living crisis, which would be bolstered by attacking Luxon. They need to have a clear message because they have been politically drifting after the public moved on from Covid. Jacinda also gave a great speech and announced expanded childcare subsidies.

I did get to see the party's internal polling, but I can't share that. I can share though the recent public poll that was released, which has National on 41% to 32% for Labour, resulting in 65 seats for the right-wing bloc. So that's obviously showing that there is (at best) a narrow path to victory for Labour, which has been hit hard by inflation and general voter dissatisfaction across many areas. Jacinda Ardern is on 30% as preferred Prime Minister to Luxon's 22% (both lost support).

[Pericles]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/11/08/pm-asks-banks-to-reassess-record-profit-making/

Kiwi politics keeping it real. Banks making record profits? Politely ask them to stop then say you don't have a solution. Bravo.

It would be pretty pathetic if she doesn't do anything about it, so they need to follow it up. Some kind of windfall tax could be a smart move, we don't have anything like that yet.

[Pericles]

Big news for the 2023 election-Winston Peters rules out working with Labour again. It is possible he makes another comeback, a recent outlier poll had NZ First on 7% and a leaked private poll had them just under 5%. This is a bold move on Winston's part-it naturally alienates people who don't want a National government and reduces his leverage but might let him take some of the insurgent momentum back from ACT. I'm not sure exactly what his pledge means, he is known to slip out of promises, maybe he is saying he could be on the cross-bench and make either party a minority government.

[Pericles]

It's pleasantly surprising that Jacinda supports this and the decision has certainly boosted the momentum for change. It won't happen in this vote but the issue is now on the agenda. And the voting and for local elections can be changed by a simple majority (arguably entrenchment provisions can be overriden too but sensibly the government won't want to get into that). So maybe the voting age will be 16 for the 2025 local elections, and while it won't be for general elections people could see it isn't such a scary change.

[Pericles]

The news yesterday was far more grim though. Interest rates hiked by 0.75%, year-long recession forecast, from mid-2023 to mid-2024. This would be alongside inflation continuing to be high and the peak is still upcoming next year (which prompted the move). This looks like a return to monetarist policies from the 1980s and 1990s, and maybe the Reserve Bank is influenced by very harsh attacks it received from the Opposition for being too soft on inflation previously. This is also likely to rule out large public spending increases or tax cuts next year. The National Party did use the opportunity to say their unpopular cut to the top tax rate won't be going ahead.

This is very similar to recent news from the UK, though a slightly less horrific picture. Still, it's gutting to realise the worst is likely still ahead of us, as if the last three years haven't been rough enough.

Politically, this latest news adds to the growing feeling that a National Party victory is virtually inevitable. The election must be held by the end of 2023 so the timing is awful for the government. Who knows what will really happen though.

[Pericles]

Politically, this latest news adds to the growing feeling that a National Party victory is virtually inevitable. The election must be held by the end of 2023 so the timing is awful for the government. Who knows what will really happen though.

I certainly wouldn't go that far.

It's not my feeling, as I've said previously, but it may be 'the narrative' and seems to be expected by politicians and the business community, a recent poll also had more of the public expecting a National win to a Labour one.

[Pericles]

OneNews have released their latest poll, showing a National and ACT government with 64 seats.
National-38%
Labour-33%
ACT-11%
Green-9%
Maori-2%
NZ First (not elected in poll)-4%

This means the right bloc has gained slightly, but overall their narrow lead has been stable for a few months. Unsurprisingly, just 18% are now optimistic for the New Zealand economy next year (though this may not have been reflected in their Black Friday and Christmas spending). Jacinda Ardern leads by 6 points, 29%-23%, in the preferred Prime Minister numbers. This may be the last poll for the year, and there is just under a year left until the election. Judging by the last two elections, there will be plenty of twists and turns before then.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/12/05/poll-national-and-act-strengthen-luxon-closes-gap-on-ardern/

[Pericles]

Well the NZ centre left equivalents of Hodges/Rentoul no doubt have their "the opposition should be much further ahead mid-term if they hope to win the next election" takes prepared already

Exactly right.
https://twitter.com/ClintVSmith/status/1599659474645815296

[Pericles]

The preliminary results for the Hamilton West by-election are in.
Tama Potaka (National)-46.1% (+9.9% on 2020 electorate vote)
Georgie Dansey (Labour)-30.2% (-21.7%)
James McDowall (ACT)-10.2% (+7.2%)
Gaurav Sharma (NZ Momentum)-8.0% (+8.0%)
Others-5.5%

There are still special votes to come in but it looks like turnout is less than half of what it was in the 2020 election. This is a big swing from Labour, as expected, and it is in a bellwether electorate (it has voted for the party vote winner in every MMP election). It suggests Labour is doing badly nationally, though by elections are weird and turnout being so low makes it less predictive. At least Gaurav Sharma is no longer an MP and was crushed.

[Pericles]

Who is the favourite to win the Labour leadership ballot?

The wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_New_Zealand_Labour_Party_leadership_election

Chris Hipkins, the former Covid minister. If it goes to a membership vote Michael Wood (who got the FPAs through) might have a shot. And Grant Robertson would be the inevitable choice if he had run.

[Pericles]

Who is the favourite to win the Labour leadership ballot?

The wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_New_Zealand_Labour_Party_leadership_election

Chris Hipkins, the former Covid minister. If it goes to a membership vote Michael Wood (who got the FPAs through) might have a shot. And Grant Robertson would be the inevitable choice if he had run.

I understand that a candidate needs 2/3 of the MPs votes to be elected leader. Does Hipkins have the votes or a membership ballot is inevitable?

It looks likely that caucus will try to make a decision and avoid a membership vote but we'll just need to see how it unfolds.

[Pericles]

Another brilliant year we're having.

[Pericles]

New PM delivers double-poll lead for Labour.

The Newshub poll

Maori Party and NZ First both polled around 2%. This has Labour and the Greens at 58 seats to 60 for National, while the Maori Party gets 2 seats so that could be a crazy hung 60-60 parliament.
Preferred Prime Minister numbers were low for both with Jacinda still on 12% and Seymour on 8%. Their net trust ratings though were Hipkins +26.0% and Luxon -6.9%.


The 1News/Kantar poll

Similarly, the Maori Party decides control, though the seat numbers for the blocs are the opposite of the Newshub poll (60 vs 58).
That poll gave these preferred PM numbers.

[Pericles]

New Zealand has been hit again, with Cyclone Gabrielle wrecking destruction through the North Island. In particular, the Hawkes Bay has suffered significant damage, many communities have been cut off by flooding and hundreds of thousands of people have suffered power cuts. Four people are confirmed to have died so far. This has been the third declared national emergency in recent years, along with the Christchurch earthquakes and the arrival of Covid in 2020.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/131237171/cyclone-gabrielle-fears-cyclone-death-will-rise-as-bodies-seen-floating-in-water

[Pericles]

Latest poll results, the first post-Cyclone Gabrielle public poll.


In terms of seats, this is in some ways a return to 2017. Labour got 46 seats then too and National and ACT added up to 57 seats then too.


It's a good result, though a bit surprising the post-Gabrielle surge went to the Greens instead of Labour. If verified by more polls, maybe climate action will force its way up the agenda.

[Pericles]

Minister brutally sacked for leaking cabinet discussions to donors
The Minister involved, Stuart Nash, was already on his final warning and has had a horror few weeks as reports of his idiotic and inappropriate actions came to light. He had tried to interfere in a specific case and push for the Police to appeal a sentence, and then boasted about it on national radio. He first lost his position as Police Minister, and as more similar breaches of the Cabinet Manual were revealed, he was demoted to the bottom of the 'cabinet ranking'. Hipkins came across as firm each time but the fact that there had to be more than one response means in hindsight he left it later than it should have been. So far Nash looks to be stupid rather than corrupt, but Ministers do need to know better.

Nash is the grandson of Walter Nash, who helped establish the welfare state as Finance Minister in the 1930s and was the third ever Labour PM. His Napier electorate is also not a safe Labour seat but was already going to be a competitive race, so that's one to watch.

[Pericles]

Jacinda Ardern gave her valedictory speech yesterday, and is now no longer an MP. She has vowed never to return to politics. It has made me sad to see her go, she provided amazing leadership when we needed it and her integrity is very admirable. She certainly will be remembered for a long time to come, and overall it will be positive imo.

How exactly history judges her is hard to know-I expect her successful Covid response will be the headline, but her domestic agenda is obviously unfinished. In areas like climate and child poverty, there has been noticeable progress but it has also been insufficient compared to her ambitions. The Covid legacy is also tainted by the fact that her ability to unify the nation could not sustain itself-I don't blame her for the anti vax riot at parliament last year but there was a conspiratorial, and often racist and sexist backlash to her.

Here are some highlights from her speech, so you can judge for yourselves.

[Pericles]

The Three Waters reforms have been amended and rebranded. It is now the Affordable Water Reforms, and there are now 10 regional entities managing water infrastructure instead of 4. That loses some of the economies of scale that the gvernment had promoted, but it means local councils get more of a voice. Labour still promises this will mean water infrastructure is improved (so towns of thousands of people don't get sick like Havelock North in 2016) and that it will save people money on local council rates. National and ACT dismissed the reforms.

This also did not change the co-governance component that has been highly divisive, where Maori get an equal say in the selection of the boards of these regional entities. At least the new Local Government Minister Kieran McAnulty said "I think we nailed it", but whether this controversy impacts the election much (and fixes water infrastructure if it survives) remains to be seen.

[Pericles]

Sitting cabinet Minister Meka Whaitiri, who has been a Labour MP since 2013 and holds a safe seat, has defected to the Maori Party. It is a very odd situation-the PM was caught completely unaware and no explanation has been given.  This looks like good news for the Maori Party and makes something like 3-4 seats more plausible, which imo is a bad thing for the country because I'd rather they do not hold the balance of power.

[Pericles]

Sitting cabinet Minister Meka Whaitiri, who has been a Labour MP since 2013 and holds a safe seat, has defected to the Maori Party. It is a very odd situation-the PM was caught completely unaware and no explanation has been given.  This looks like good news for the Maori Party and makes something like 3-4 seats more plausible, which imo is a bad thing for the country because I'd rather they do not hold the balance of power.

Why not?

I don't actually think we need much more constitutional change to improve Maori rights. I don't think their high profile is good for race relations or serious policy. This kind of rhetoric at best is just divisive for no good reason, and at worst actually shifts policy in the wrong direction.

I think it's different from including co-governance or management in resources that Maori already have a recognised interest in, that is sensible and practical. Despite the wild rhetoric, it does not change our democracy.

Most likely, they will be ineffective like they were when supporting National. I'd prefer just to have Labour and the Greens though, but clearly the election might be too close for that to be possible.

[Pericles]

Luxon has ruled out working with the Maori Party. This confirms what was always likely, that the outcome shown in most polls-where neither bloc can govern without Maori Party support, means a re-elected Labour government. If there is an impact, it should boost the Maori Party slightly while hurting Labour with moderate Pakeha voters.