New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

Today is a good day for the start of the new traffic light system. Just 92 Covid cases were reported today, that's the lowest in a while. Two more health boards and the overall city of Auckland have reached 90% of 12+ double dosed. Nationwide, 93% are first dosed and 87% are double dosed. As there is more of an incentive now, that should keep rising at least a bit. No area of New Zealand has gone into the green light and are unlikely to go there before January 17, once the impact of Covid spreading across New Zealand from Auckland over the holidays has been assessed. Most of New Zealand is at the orange light, with Auckland and low vaccination areas in the North Island being at the red light (Luxon today said that because Jacinda admitted Auckland's healthcare system is not under threat, they should just go straight to green). I'm still learning, but I believe red light means no change for the double-dosed, but some businesses are closed if they don't use vaccine passes and gatherings can't exceed 25 if not everyone is double-dosed. Orange light means no limits on gatherings for the vaccinated, but if not everyone is vaccinated it's only 50 per gathering and the unvaccinated are limited to contactless use of hospitality businesses. Only at green lights do the mask requirements end, and the unvaccinated only then come out of partial lockdown conditions.

2. He seems to have been made in Grandpa Muldoon’s secret lab to be the perfect leader for National (not that he is or isn’t, just that he’s had upper management written all over him since he entered Parliament).

That's basically why he became leader, he has virtually no  record in politics so it's the idea of Luxon that National is counting on. Whether the man lives up to those hopes remains to be seen, though National has been doing so badly that he'd have to be really bad to be the wrong choice and they should have a more respectable loss in 2023.

EDIT: Luxon said/reiterated that National doesn't support the traffic light system, saying that "when we can get to a high level of double vaccination we're good to go and we have to open up the country and get going." Looking at overseas, I'm personally more comfortable with us having some restrictions now, and easing into the new system, but he's making valid points.

[Pericles]

All of New Zealand except for Northland will be in the orange light of the traffic light system by New Year's Eve. The orange light I think is normal life for the vaccinated except for an indoor mask mandate, while the unvaccinated are in a partial lockdown (it seems the same as the unused step 3 of level 3). The red light also has social distancing for the vaccinated, while the unvaccinated are further restricted to gatherings of no more than 25 people. That's where Northland is. Overall, with cases falling and around 100 a day, and still hardly any deaths, while our vaccination rate is very good (94% of 12 +first dosed and 89% double dosed), we are in a great place for 2022.

[Pericles]

Latest poll shows NZ Labour at their lowest for a while, and a modest National "new leader" boost.

Which one?

[Pericles]

Latest poll shows NZ Labour at their lowest for a while, and a modest National "new leader" boost.

Which one?

I assume it's the Roy Morgan poll, right? 36% to Labour, 26.5% to the Nationals and 17.5% for the ACT.

Oh right. That poll is pretty unreliable and bounces around crazily. I think it would be best just to wait for one of the two major pollsters-Newshub or Colmar Brunton.

EDIT: A new poll by the Taxpayer's Union has shown National rising after the leadership change. They are now at 32.6%, that's up 6 points on a month ago. That change has come from ACT, who are down 5 points to 10.6%, while Labour's support is unchanged on 39.5%, while the Greens are on 10.9%. So that's 63 seats for the left bloc and 53 seats for the right bloc. Luxon is on 20.4% for preferred PM to 39.4% for Jacinda.

[Pericles]

There is community transmission of the Omicron variant in NZ

As Jacinda had already said the other day, all of New Zealand will move to the red light of the traffic light system. This is not a lockdown but merely limits gatherings to 100 people for the vaccinated, 1m social distancing and keeping existing mask mandates. Most countries we now know don't need one over Omicron, though our health system's capacity is weak so hopefully we can cope without more restrictions. The community cases are 10 people from a household in Nelson (in the South Island), who most likely got the Omicron variant at some big events in Auckland on 13-15 January. So it is unlikely that the outbreak can be stamped out, and instead the government will just try to flatten the curve.

Fortunately, New Zealand has had a great summer, with Delta cases coming way down to under 50 a day. Yesterday, there were only 8 people in hospital across the country with Covid and none in intensive care. The borders were not reopened, however Omicron has surged massively at managed isolation facilities with border cases often being greater than community cases. The delay before our outbreak has given us time to prepare, and to start the booster and kids vaccine rollouts. However, rapid antigen tests are not available to the public yet which could be a big problem. Jacinda did say that once the outbreak gets past 1,000 cases (over 5 times the previous NZ record), testing will change in 'stages' and so will isolation requirements (currently 14 days for cases and 10 for close contacts).

[Pericles]

The border reopening is going ahead. By the time that it begins, the likely self-isolation period will be 7 days. The first stage is on 27 February when fully vaccinated New Zealanders in Australia can avoid managed isolation, and on March 13 that extends to all fully vaccinated New Zealanders in the world. That is personal to me because I will be able to see my family overseas soon. Tourism will start later, the announcement isn't that useful here because it only sets a date of tourism from visa waiver countries starting by July and from everywhere in the world by October. Jacinda did say it will likely be moved forward, and isolation requirements could also have changed by that point. It is another step in us starting to live with Covid, and while the border controls were the right decision in the past, they will no longer be necessary.

[Pericles]

This poll is interesting, because it suggests the government is now more eager to reopen than the public. It was in the field mainly when Omicron was already in the community. 47.9% said that they supported a lockdown in response to 'an Omicron outbreak', with 45.8% opposed, and a whopping 57.8% wanted to keep the border closed to 36.3% who want it open.

As for the party vote, this was a great poll for Labour. Here are the party vote numbers.

So there is a Luxon effect but no Luxon-mania. This would lead to 68 seats for the left-down 7 on 2020, 49 for the right-up 6 on 2020, and 3 for the Maori Party.

[Pericles]

Just a quick update on the Covid situation-New Zealand today has recorded 1,160 cases, the first four digit number of the pandemic. A majority of the adult population-52.4%-are now triple dosed. From today, New Zealand is at phase 2 of the Omicron response with looser isolation requirements (10 days for cases), expanded rapid antigen testing and self management of most cases. Also, the outbreak is primarily occurring in Auckland at this stage. As this is 25 days into the Omicron outbreak, it looks like keeping MIQ and the red light restrictions have had some effect.

[Pericles]

With 6,173 cases, phase 3 of the Omicron response begins at midnight-rapid antigen tests will now be available for the public and only positive cases or household (or 'household-like') contacts of cases will need to isolate. The isolation time is still 10 days.

There has been a 'freedom convoy' inspired occupation of Parliament grounds and nearby areas of central Wellington-such as a university campus. This has been going on for 17 days so far. The police refused to just force the protesters out, and only now have started to stop people parking their vehicles illegally in the occupation zone. These anti-vax nutjobs have been very disruptive and abusive to the public, and this could go on for a while which is very annoying.

[Pericles]

Yesterday, the protesters were evicted from Parliament grounds after 23 days. This became a riot with the playground there set on fire, and objects like bricks were thrown at police. 7 police officers were hospitalised and 87 people have been arrested so far. Here are some pictures of the day. It was an unfortunate outcome, but the police had to get rid of them.

[Pericles]

The latest poll results, from 1News Kantar, are disappointing. National has taken the lead over Labour, and the Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the numbers were completely accurate. This also feels a bit worse for Labour than the poll leads National had in 2020, because the Labour vote is lower than it has been in a few years at 37% and preferred Prime Minister is not reassuring with Jacinda only leading 34%-25% for Luxon (and a 46%-45% virtual tie in a head to head question)


Covid fatigue would be hurting Labour, especially with 21,015 new cases today and lots of people in isolation at the moment. I don't think that people would necessarily prefer a looser approach though, 60% still support vaccine mandates and other polls have suggested that the current approach polls well especially in comparison to any single alternative. Just like across the world, the cost of living 'crisis' is hurting the government too.

[Pericles]

With housing, it is one of those hopeless political situations because 60% of home owners don't want the value of their home to fall at all but 47% of New Zealanders think house prices should drop a lot and only 18% want no change.

[Pericles]

Two big bits of news in the last 24 hours.
Yesterday, Simon Bridges announced he is leaving politics. This is pretty shocking, he is National's finance spokesperson and this will spark a by-election in Tauranga. National's deputy leader Nicola Willis has now been given Finance too. Bridges seems to want to spend more time with his family and he might even have a job offer already, I don't know if it says anything about National's chances. Tauranga is a safe National seat despite it being close in 2020, though it was Winston Peters' old seat so he could try make a comeback.

Today, the government announced that NZ will open to Australian tourists on April 12 and to visa waiver countries on May 1 (including the US). The requirement is just full vaccination and a negative pre-departure test, no self-isolation. This is great for the country and it will be great to be open to the world again. I'm not sure why they are not doing the entire world in one go though.

[Pericles]

Tauranga is a safe National seat despite it being close in 2020, though it was Winston Peters' old seat so he could try make a comeback.

God help you if he does. There’s one thing to be said about him, NZ politics is never boring when he’s involved.

To be fair, I don't think he'll win. He also met with the anti-vax protesters at Parliament so most people-especially the elderly-won't like that.

[Pericles]

We are the only Anglosphere country without a Murdoch media presence and not much of a far-right base generally. However, National has won the most votes in 5 MMP elections in a period where Republicans only won the popular vote once for President. I'm not sure what SnowLabrador's point was, but New Zealand politics is different from the US rather than just being a version of US politics shifted left.

[Pericles]

The Prime Minister has just announced the next steps in the Covid response. The red setting of the traffic light system has been changed so that indoor gathering limits on hospitality venues have been increased to 200 people, and all limits on outdoor gatherings have been removed. There were some minor changes to the guidance at the orange light and no changes for the vaccinated at the green light (which is basically just normal life anyway). The mandating of QR codes has also been eliminated because contact tracing is almost completely gone, though people were encouraged not to delete the app.

Vaccine passes have also been eliminated, allegedly because of the high vaccination rate and natural immunity. Of course businesses can still use them. Vaccine mandates have been removed for education, defence and police workforces, with the employers there now having the choice over whether to use them. Border, health and aged care workers are still required to be vaccinated. Any mandates that remain will eventually be updated so that triple-vaccination is required.

New Zealand is still at the red light, but the traffic lights will be reviewed regularly from 4 April.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300547780/live-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-to-announce-cabinets-decision-on-covid19-settings

[Pericles]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

[Pericles]

New Zealand has moved to the orange traffic light setting. This means that social distancing requirements are now gone. The only restrictions left are mask mandates and self-isolation for confirmed cases and household contacts. Masks have been removed in schools and dancing has been allowed again at nightclubs. The Covid Response Minister did get confused about the rules in his own press conference, but the general rule seems to be that masks are still required inside.

Seems very incongruous with the general relaxations to me.

Yeah but the level of restrictions keeps gradually decreasing. Maybe they just want to wait a few weeks and see if cases keep going diwn before getting rid of more rules. They are worried about winter though (and a flu and covid 'twindemic') so we might have to endure some rules for a few months. They probably also see masks as a lower cost restriction than almost any others.

[Pericles]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

[Pericles]

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.

Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.

[Pericles]

You're overstating the case about 2020. Labour has if anything been emboldened by the 2020 election result. While they are a politically cautious government, they have been bolder in their second term. For example, while they resisted a capital gains tax they have gone almost as far with a 10 year bright-line test, they will be abolishing the regionalised healthcare system and also establishing a Maori Health Authority, they raised benefits by a significant amount last year, and they will be passing Fair Pay Agreements that lift the minimum worker's rights across low paid sectors. I think there would be a significant legacy if they do get 9 years to entrench it.

There have also only been nine MMP elections, so frankly it seems like you're just using some random statistic that doesn't actually mean anything.

[Pericles]

President Biden praises PM Ardern's leadership during meeting at White House. Love to see it. Ardern also went on Colbert again in this trip and spoke at Harvard.

[Pericles]

President Biden praises PM Ardern's leadership during meeting at White House. Love to see it. Ardern also went on Colbert again in this trip and spoke at Harvard.

Inviting him & Evelyn to her & Clarke's wedding was a really cute follow-up to his pre-pandemic offer to officiate.

They seem to genuinely get along really well, it's nice.

[Pericles]

The preliminary results for the Tauranga by-election (Simon Bridges' old seat) are in. It was a very boring by-election with no surprises, the new MP is the National Party candidate Sam Uffindel. He got 56% of the vote, and the ACT Party candidate Cameron Luxton got 10% (probably benefited from his surname being similar to the National Party leader's lol). The Labour candidate Jan Tinetti, who came within 4% in 2020, and is a cabinet minister because she's a list MP, got 25% of the vote. Tauranga is normally a safe National seat, the margin is slightly above the one recorded at the 2017 election, so that would be the big swing the polls are showing to National and a bit of by-election penalty mixed in.

More concerning for Labour is that GDP shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, that was not expected and a second nasty surprise like that of course means a recession.

[Pericles]

My take on it is that Sharma was the bully who was about to be outed (because National had a scandal with their new MP Sam Uffindell) so he is playing the victim. He hasn't presented any evidence but has kept attacking the PM in the media, recording other MPs and he refused to attend the caucus meeting that suspended him even though Jacinda agreed the time with him (though the rest of the caucus did have a meeting beforehand allegedly to raise concerns but they would have made the decision there). I agree that Labour won't want a by-election, I guess he will be like Jami Lee-Ross and sit on the backbenches without a party. I don't think this is that harmful politically for Labour, but all these scandals with MPs (most of them National MPs) would hurt Parliament's reputation-they should just cut it out and be normal.