Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Pericles]

Jones is the Democrat Scott Brown. The Democrats will win.

[Pericles]

FTR, the feeling two weeks ago was that Gillespie was closing the gap and Northam was "blowing it".

[Pericles]

I always had a feeling Jones would pull off an upset. Jones will win and I'll be proven right.

[Pericles]

This race shows Democratic defeatism on full display. Good thing the dems down in Alabama aren't acting the same way, or this race would still be at likely or safe R.

[Pericles]

Roy Moore on meeting his wife when she was 23. "Many years before, I had attended a dance recital at Gadsden State Junior College," Moore wrote. "I remembered one of the special dances performed by a young woman whose first and last names began with the letter 'K.' It was something I had never forgotten. Could that young woman have been Kayla Kisor?" Moore later determined that it was. "Long afterward, I would learn that Kayla had, in fact, performed a special dance routine at Gadsden State years before," He even admitted she was 15 at the time"It was, oh gosh, eight years later, or something, I met her," Moore said. "And when she told me her name, I remembered 'K. K.,' and I said, 'Haven't I met you before?'" It's a simple matter of subtraction. When Roy Moore first took notice of Kayla she would have been as young as 15.

What the hell was Roy Moore doing at dance recitals if teenage girls. This shows a pattern of behaviour, which has been backed up by numerous other sources and people at the time, that Moore did take a creepy interest in teenage girls.

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/articles.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/11/you_dont_have_to_believe_the_w.amp

[Pericles]

Roy Moore says he first noticed his wife when she was 15 or 16 years old

Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore, who has been accused of pursuing romantic relationships with teenagers while in his 30s, said he first noticed his future wife eight years before he formally met her -- when she would have been as young as 15 years old. Moore was 38 when he married Kayla Kisor, who was 24.

"When I was deputy district attorney, many years before we got married, I saw her at a dance recital and I was standing, oh, at the back of the auditorium and I saw her up front," he recalled at the time. "I remember her name, it was Kayla Kisor. KK. But I remember that and I didn't meet her there ... it was, oh gosh, eight years later or something, I met her. And when she told me her name, I remembered."

"I knew Kayla was going to be a special person in my life," Moore wrote about when he first saw her when she was 15 years old. He wrote he began dating her when she was 23, a year before they married, according to the memoir. "Anxious to meet her, I began with the line, 'Haven't we met somewhere before?' 'I don't think so,' she replied," he said, recalling the moment they met at a church Christmas party. But he recalled first seeing her "many years ago" at a dance recital at a nearby college in Alabama. He wrote he never forgot her, even when he saw her again years later.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/21/politics/roy-moore-kayla-kisor-15-years-old/index.html

Thanks but I already posted this except from al.com.

[Pericles]

Two private GOP polls from mid-November have Jones leading.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/us/politics/trump-roy-moore-mcconnell-alabama-senate.html?_r=0&mtrref=t.co

Moore is definitely going to get a bounce in the polls from Trump.

He definitely helped Strange /s

[Pericles]

FWIW (basically nothing!), my friend went home to Alabama for Thanksgiving and said she basically only saw Doug Jones signs in every neighborhood she drove through, including very Republican suburbs.

Senator Gillespie (now governor elect) agrees.

You forgot President Romney and Rep. Ossoff.

Btw, while Atlas wasn't looking, Moore has been creeping up and up on PredictIt every day. There's a reason why people with money on the line are betting on Moore. If you all would've taken my advice to max out on him weeks ago, you would've made a pretty penny.

The betting markets said Clinton and Remain would win. The energy and momentum on the ground is with Jones, that will deliver him the Senate seat.

[Pericles]

FWIW (basically nothing!), my friend went home to Alabama for Thanksgiving and said she basically only saw Doug Jones signs in every neighborhood she drove through, including very Republican suburbs.

Senator Gillespie (now governor elect) agrees.

You forgot President Romney and Rep. Ossoff.

Btw, while Atlas wasn't looking, Moore has been creeping up and up on PredictIt every day. There's a reason why people with money on the line are betting on Moore. If you all would've taken my advice to max out on him weeks ago, you would've made a pretty penny.

The betting markets said Clinton and Remain would win. The energy and momentum on the ground is with Jones, that will deliver him the Senate seat.

I'm starting to think this mythical "energy" is actually a curse, considering it was possessed by Romney, Ossoff, Kander, Bernie, etc. etc.

Regardless, you could've bought tons of Moore shares in the 30s and sold them now in the upper 60s for a nice profit. Or wait until he inevitably hits the 70s/80s for even Moore profit.

Trump didn't win with a spectacular ground game now, did he? Energy and Momentum!

[Pericles]

Don't be surprised if the polls underestimate Jones. You people all thought Gillespie would win.

[Pericles]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

[Pericles]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Yeah, Moore would certainly be doomed in Virginia. And in at least 40 other states too. Sadly, this is Alabama.

Point is the Democrats could easily be underrated. People are overcorrecting for a tiny polling error last year.

[Pericles]

Just like maybe one or two people called the Northam landslide, I may well turn out to be one of the few who called the Jones win.

[Pericles]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

[Pericles]

This is Atlas but still.
https://youtu.be/_j2H5Djy-aU

[Pericles]

Win or lose, Moore will still burn in hell for what he is done. And I sincerely hope that he does when it's time for judgment day. AN ELECTION AIN'T TICKET OUT OF HELL, LOL!

t

Well I am sure he will meet Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton there.

He'll meet his voters down there, who will be somewhere between 45% and 50% of the electorate.

[Pericles]

DOUG CAN WIN!

[Pericles]

The idea that Trump will swing it to Moore is laughable. He couldn't even get Republican primary voters in Alabama to obey him-how can you expect him to get a less pro-Trump to vote for a pedophile?! This guy is a total choker and loser, I look forward to Senator Doug Jones making his presidency even harder.

[Pericles]

The idea that Trump will swing it to Moore is laughable. He couldn't even get Republican primary voters in Alabama to obey him-how can you expect him to get a less pro-Trump to vote for a pedophile?! This guy is a total choker and loser, I look forward to Senator Doug Jones making his presidency even harder.

Trump is a God Emperor in Alabama.

Oh yeah he sure helped Luther Strange in the Republican primary. He's a loser, and Doug Jones will prove it again.

[Pericles]

The idea that Trump will swing it to Moore is laughable. He couldn't even get Republican primary voters in Alabama to obey him-how can you expect him to get a less pro-Trump to vote for a pedophile?! This guy is a total choker and loser, I look forward to Senator Doug Jones making his presidency even harder.

Trump is a God Emperor in Alabama.

Oh yeah he sure helped Luther Strange in the Republican primary. He's a loser, and Doug Jones will prove it again.

All that proves is they are more loyal to Trumpism than Trump, as Moore was definitely the Trumpite in the race.

Roy Moore is more of a Ted Cruz tbh. And besides, if Roy Moore already has all the persuadable Trump voters and Trump's voters don't listen to him, that doesn't look good for Trump or Moore.

[Pericles]

Yay voters aren't allowed to 'forget'!

[Pericles]

Republicans find it easier to sell out their soul a second time having already done it for Trump.

[Pericles]

Manchin will win.

[Pericles]

https://www.salon.com/2017/12/04/many-alabama-newspapers-fear-endorsing-roy-moores-democratic-opponent/

Come on Salon! That's the opposite of what Jones has been doing. He's been focused on the issues the whole time and is primarily talking about heathcare and education(one of the ads attacking Moore was attacking him on education). The media may only be focused on Moore's scandals, but Jones is also an objectively great candidate(as well as Moore being very, very terrible).

[Pericles]

Manchin will win.

Will you edit this prediction after Jones loses?

The two races aren't really comparable, but I'll adjust to say there is a small possibility that Republicans can win the seat. Manchin is favored but him losing shouldn't be ruled out as impossible, just unlikely.