Pericles
Atlas Icon
Posts: 17,220
|
|
« on: June 03, 2017, 05:03:43 PM » |
|
My case for a pro-Tory polling error: Polls typically overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories-though as I have said it can be the other way around too. It's hard to imagine that so much has changed in just a few weeks that May will actually lose her majority. Given the performances of the Tories in the local elections, it looks like a Tory victory is likely and there is not much support for Corbyn. While Labour may have improved their position, they still are vulnerable on many key issues, especially leadership-where May has a clear advantage. The leadership issue in particular has been decisive in past elections. The polling surge for Labour could be real, but it seems like the media has just inflated it and tried to play up Corbyn's chances to liven up an otherwise boring election. The polls got 2015 and Brexit wrong, and its unclear if the pollsters have sufficiently cleaned up their act since then, even if they have UK polls are error-prone. I consider this the most likely outcome but also my least favorite one. My prediction: 2017 UK election Theresa May-Conservative: 385+55 48.3% Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 201-28 34.0% Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 43.11 3.9% Tim Farron-LibDem: 2-7 7.0% Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 1.9% Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0_ 3.3% 650 seats 326 for majority
|