Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Cubby]

I support both the Liberals and the NDP. Since I won't be voting there I have that option

Do the Liberals, NDP and Greens differ on any important issues? I worry that three left wing parties will lead to a bigger Conservative victory over a divided opposition.

We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

[Cubby]

Canada only has one major left wing party. Neither the Liberals nor the Greens can be characterized as such.

The Liberals support a carbon tax. Not to mention they legalized gay marriage. I have to support them, somewhat. I think on issues alone, I'd be an NDP member. I don't think you realize how strong the aversion to third parties is to (most) Americans. I don't like the Greens, they should be supporting the NDP.

Not that it would happen this time, but could there ever be a Liberal-NDP coalition?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080901.wpoll0901/BNStory/Front/home

Globe & Mail headline says that Harper is on the edge of forming a majority government, according to their latest poll.

Boo

[Cubby]

Also, the Liberals have little to no chance of regaining Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

The Liberals weren't that far behind in the last two elections. Has Bouchard become much more popular? Its a very French area and was strongly pro-secession but I don't know much else about it.

[Cubby]

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/

Hill and Knowlton's Election Predictor is finally back up. It lets you test potential outcomes by entering swings from the last election between parties or by what percent they get in the polls. Its entertaining, if not always helpful. It doesn't take into account the candidates who are running, just the numeric change from last time.

I entered the results from the Harris-Decima Poll (from the main Wikipedia article on the Election) it was taken yesterday:

Con.   36%
Lib.     28%
NDP    15%
Bloc      9%
Green   9%

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hZuJofcVZ-TXNgJc2erR6MNXQ6cg

To get the numbers to round to 100%, I added 1 percentage point to "other" and 2 points to the Liberals b/c IIRC, some NDP voters chicken out at the last minute and vote Liberal. With these numbers, the results are:  (change from 2006)

Conservative       129 Seats  (+3)
Liberals               107 Seats   (+6)
NDP                     25 Seats    (-5)
Bloc Quebecois    46 Seats    (-4)
Other                   1 Seat
Greens                 0 Seats

Another Minority Government. The ridings that would change are:

Bloc to Liberal: Papineau, Brossard-La Prairie, Ahuntsic
Bloc to Tories: St. Hyacinthe-Bagot

NDP to Liberal: Parkdale-High Park, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshawe, Burnaby-Douglas
NDP to Tory: Vancouver Island North
Liberal to Tory: Vancouver-Quadra

[Cubby]

On the subject, the Libs are having trouble finding candidates in Quebec apparently. Only 45/75 when I last checked.

Boo!

What is the Bloc's relationship with the Conservatives like? I know they aren't close ideologically but would they ever form a coalition if needed?

I'm going to change my avatar soon to a Canadian Province, in honor of this election. I'm still thinking about which one. I like Manitoba for some reason. Is there anything bad about MB that I should know?

[Cubby]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

I've found that a lot of Western left wing parties aren't very nice to Israel. Its not a huge issue for me, but it is important. It might be the one thing I prefer Harper on, but he's terrible for most everything else.

(Under-25 vote is 37C-22N-19L-18G-12B.)

What the hell? Young people aren't supposed to favor (small "c") conservative parties by that big of a margin. This is an outrage.

[Cubby]

They don't. Check the NDP and Green vote.

Moreover, check the total - 108.
Guess one figure is off by ten... pretty easy to spot which is the most likely...

Thats better, but the Tories are still leading by 5 points in that event.

Are left-wingers defecting to the Greens only from the Liberals, or from the NDP a bit as well?

[Cubby]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts