I agree that Obama will do well in Hawaii. But it has a very large military population (active and retired). Won't that help Clinton, since she's been very martial the past 2 years?
Aren't most military guys Republicans and hence will vote for McCain in the GOP primary?True, I didn't think of that.
Anyway, isn't Hawaii 6% Mormon? That would translate into what, 12% of GOP primary vote? Which in turn would give Romney about 10%. A good base but it doesn't in itself seal the win. I'd expect a lot of Hawaii people to be moderates which would help McCain. I expect Huckabee to suck here though and Paul to over-perform.
Great, another state for the Norman to win
Hawaii's different ethnic groups have very different voting patterns. I forget exactly what they are but its something like:
Japanese and Native Hawaiian ancestry- Strong Democrats
Filipino ancestry and Mainland (European) Whites- Republicans
