On the GOTV issue:
Democrats have historically had a big advantage in party affliation numbers, so logically they would win if they simply got all those registered Democrats to show up. That's the old strategy, though, and it doesn't appear to work anymore.
The Republicans didn't win solely on successful GOTV efforts. The idea that evangelicals won the race for Bush is a myth that some Democrats use to convince themselves that they are right: "the majority disagrees with me because the majority is a bunch of loons." Bush won because the major issue in the election, Iraq, was a winner for Bush. Kerry couldn't get a majority of voters on the question "whom do you trust more on the issue of Iraq?" Bush always had a strong lead on the Terrorism issue and was able to play to a near-draw on economic issues (thanks to efforts like NCLB and Medicare drug coverage).
Your explanation sounds better than the idea of the christian right vote. Thinking back to November I would have been less freaked out by losing on Iraq than losing on "moral values" and to the christian right. Its all because of that misleading question on the exit poll! Some liberals said that was their main reason for voting because they are morally opposed to the entire Bush Administration.
