Crisis in Venezuela (user search)
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Devout Centrist
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Posts: 10,137
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E: -99.99, S: -99.99

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« on: January 24, 2019, 12:48:55 PM »

Just what I needed, an scarlet-avatar user telling me I should be thankful that the military supports the nefarious regime that is the reason I left my country. Thrilling.

I mean, you could argue that Maduro is somehow preferrable to a war in the same way that some believe Saddam or Gadaffi should have been left alone. Then again a war is an extremely unlikely scenario and even if it happened it wouldn't end up like Irak or Lybia.

Of course the ideal scenario is that the army takes control and ousts Maduro. (or that he steps down willingly but that's not going to happen)

Does he have much popular support? Because otherwise the army is the last thing standing before he ends up like Ceaucescu.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem Guiado's proclamation will amount to anything.

I do believe that a war would be absolutely terrible, and hopefully, it won't go to that. And what the opposition is betting on, is that the military kicks Maduro out thanks to international pressure and a real transition begins.
I don't think this is a very likely outcome. The military seems to staunchly support Maduro
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Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,137
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2019, 12:42:43 PM »

I don't think recognizing Guaido is the best move. Surely Maduro is utter scum, but I worry that destabilizing the country could result in complete collapse or worse, civil war. Now's the time to coax Maduro into talking with the opposition and making moves towards de-escalation. I don't think this move helps that goal.
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