2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devout Centrist]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

+13?!

Makes me skeptical of the whole endeavor...

It's 2500 adults, not likely voters

[Devout Centrist]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

Yes, I encourage Hofoid to log off and go knock on doors

[Devout Centrist]

The RCP generic ballot average is D+7.0, but remember that in past congressional elections, the party currently controlling the House has a tendency to be underestimated. That has held true in 7 of 8 congressional elections since 2002 and in 4 of 4 midterms since then.

The average underestimation has been 2.1%, so if the Democrats are standing at +7.0 in the polling average and they need +5.7 to take the House, it's possible this could end up being much closer than anyone thought. Even in quintessential wave years like 2006 and 2010 that featured massive enthusiasm gaps, the polls generally overestimated the wave. This year, the polls are closer and the enthusiasm gap is much smaller.

As I pointed out in your other thread, this is reductive and misleading. The margin among competitive districts is far more predictive of House control rather than the final popular vote. Indeed, Democrats could win the House popular vote by 10...but that doesn't matter if it's only driven by high turnout in safely Democratic districts.

[Devout Centrist]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 2521 LV (change from last week)

D: 56 (-1)
R: 41 (+1)

Republican surge, woe is us!

[Devout Centrist]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

[Devout Centrist]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

I don't run any subreddits. I run something else.

Anyway, I have knocked on many doors, but they were for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon

You supported AOC and decided to 'walk away' days later??

[Devout Centrist]

It really looks like everything everywhere is breaking for the Dems.   I'm not one to call the race before it's over, but polling is getting pretty bad for the GOP here.    Is anyone else noticing this late swing to the Dems?

Let me give you an analogy. Passengers on the RMS Titanic said that they believed the ship to be almost unsinkable. The night of the disaster, they saw a light on the horizon from a nearby ship. They thought they would easily be saved. Many didn’t want to go out onto the cold deck, with nothing but pure darkness surrounding the ship. The ship held up extremely well for the first 2 hours and 20 minutes.

It was only in the last 20 minutes that the ship plunged, broke up, and foundered.

[Devout Centrist]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Gallup had it at D+7 back in '06...

[Devout Centrist]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.

One word: 2016

[Devout Centrist]

Former Irving Mayor and HUD Official Beth Van Duyne is IN for #TX24.

https://www.facebook.com/1627084453/posts/10217535516252909?sfns=mo

Good recruit in my opinion. Mayor or a large city in the district as recently at 2017, Washington connections thanks to HUD (will help with fundraising), and she appears generally inoffensive.

Yeah, inoffensive and uncontroversial

But in typically low-turnout local elections, energized voters who rally around victims of religious attacks could be decisive. That happened in Irving’s 2016 city council elections, when anger over Van Duyne’s anti-Sharia campaign triggered a strong pro-Muslim showing at the polls.

After the report, Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne publicly pushed the state legislature to ensure Texas would be next to adopt an anti-sharia law. Van Duyne said she didn’t know for sure if Muslims in her part of the Dallas area were practicing sharia law, but she nevertheless declared she would “fight with every fiber of my being” to stop it.

https://twitter.com/Bethvanduyne/status/649348882359431170