Wait a sec, Tarrant County flips before Maricopa? Texas must have been really close.
Why's that an issue? Both Tarrant County and Maricopa County were both won by similar margins, maybe something like 51-49 for both Klobuchar and Trump.
EDIT: Looks like Maricopa was closer than Tarrant, so I've edited my map and now have Tarrant AND Maricopa voting Dem by narrow margins.
How much would a Dem need to win Maricopa in order to flip AZ?
By two percent or so. Less if Yuma County flips, too.
