OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Devout Centrist]

If Lamb could win PA-18, then O Connor can win OH-12.

Except Balderson is a solid quality candidate, Saccone sucked. Also, Lamb is a better candidate than O'Connor.

Hindsight, friend, hindsight.

[Devout Centrist]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

Yes, thank you for posting month old polls. Quality analysis, kid

[Devout Centrist]

Franklin County vote share is only down marginally. If it's at 35% or greater on Monday night, that's a good sign for O'Connor.

[Devout Centrist]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Right next to their fear of clouds of deadly radiation coming from Fukushima or North Korean ICBM's

[Devout Centrist]

Guys, I’ve heard that heavily Democratic precincts in Franklin County are reporting ZERO votes for Ralph Northam. This is terrible. It’s all over.

[Devout Centrist]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

[Devout Centrist]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

Lolwut

Go back to my post and click the link

[Devout Centrist]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_2010)

Lolwut

Go back to my post and click the link

link is broken

Well here it is again

[Devout Centrist]

Christ what a horrible performance! And in a district where our nominee did so well not too long ago. Damn, this is not good. We're gonna have to do much better than this in November. I can't believe that we couldn't take the 12th...I mean, my god...we couldn't win Murtha's old seat.

I think we need to reevaluate our prospects after this loss...maybe the Midwest and MidAtlantic is just not responding to our message.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_201)

Who woulda thunk the Midwest would not respond to the message? Deplorables!

What the hell is that, no. I'm lamenting how we couldn't win a historically favorable district! Our Presidential nominee won here not too long ago. And we still only had a modest swing. Red wave is dead folks, it's over. We couldn't win the 12th district.

[Devout Centrist]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

[Devout Centrist]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

Wow, pretty decent swing compared to 2016. Not enough to win, of course, but that's the best Democratic performance there since...damn, I have no idea. That's a 7 and a half point swing when compared with 2016 and an 11 point swing when compared with 2008.

Actually the GOP vote percentage stayed relative to 2016.

Trump took about 54.5%. Balderson took 53.96%. What changed was that less people voted for 3rd party candidates.

Yes, but Trump underperformed Romney and McCain. Plus, this result would mean most people who voted third party back in 2016 would favor Democrats.

Still only one result, but something to consider.

[Devout Centrist]

Just saw on MSNBC 3.5k Provo Votes in Franklin County!!!!!

Is it legit???

No, that's the district wide number. Franklin County is closer to 1,000 provisional ballots and another 1,000 outstanding absentees

[Devout Centrist]

If 80% of the provisional ballots are counted, that comes out to 2,748. And if 20% of the absentees are counted, that will amount to 1,009 total ballots. Adding that up gives us a grand total of 3,757 votes. O'Connor needs at least 1,755 votes to win (I'm using the SOS website instead of the New York Times in order to remain as conservative as possible.) That means he has to win at least 73.5% of the remaining vote.

However, accounting for the tabulation error from Franklin county and the potential for a higher number of ballots, that percentage drops to anywhere from 64% to 71%. Still unlikely that he wins, but it probably puts the race into recount territory.