So earlier this week, I decided to start taking a look at the Texas early vote on a county by county basis. I’ve been pouring over the data from places like Tarrant county, looking at past elections and at current early voting statistics. All the information I’ve seen points to one conclusion: Beto is getting the numbers he needs to win.
Now, a few caveats: Beto needs substantial swings across Texas in order to win. He doesn’t just need Democrats to turn out: he needs to win hundreds of thousands more votes from Independents and some Republicans in order to have a chance. With that in mind, the numbers suggest that Beto has done exactly that. Let me list a few preconditions needed for a Beto O’Rourke victory:
1. Phenomenal Latino, youth, and African-American turnout, far better than 2014
2. Improve on Hillary’s margin with Latino voters across Texas
3. Win Hays, Williamson, Nueces, Jefferson, and Tarrant counties
4. Run up the margin in Bexar, Travis, Dallas, and Harris counties
5. Reverse Hillary’s losses in the Rio Grande
6. Get substantial swings in Denton, Collin, Galveston, Brazoria, and Bell counties
7. Improve on Hillary’s margins in East Texas
8. Match Hillary’s performance in West Texas
(Hypothetical O'Rourke victory)
Early voting data suggests that goal 1 has been absolutely smashed. That’s a good sign. Goal 2 is very likely. Given recent data from Hidalgo and Cameron counties, the numbers look good for Beto here. In his capacity as a Congressional representative, he has earned numerous plaudits from the Latino community in Texas. There is also reason to believe that middle class, Tejano Latinos look prime to vote for Beto, too. This voting bloc usually supports Republican candidates in Texas, including people like George Bush and John Cornyn. This year, though, they appear to be much more willing to back Beto O’Rourke. While Beto may not win this group, it will improve his raw vote total substantially.
(2016 Texas Swing Map, courtesy of Dave Leip's US Election Atlas)
Onto point number 3. This is where I start speculating. If you look at the swing map in 2016, all of these counties (save for Jefferson) swung towards Hillary Clinton by a solid margin. This was especially the case in Williamson county, where Clinton improve on Obama’s raw vote total by 23,000 votes and on his margin by 5.5 points. Beto, however, will have to do even better this year to win these counties. But there’s reason to believe that it’s possible. On average, nearly 4.35% of voters in these five counties backed a third party candidate. It was even higher in Hays and Williamson counties. Secondly, most of these five counties contain exactly the kind of voters (white, college educated) that are swinging towards Democrats. Beto has also have heavy investments in all five of these counties. Combined with a differential turnout advantage, Beto has a solid shot to win here.
Sidenote: Jefferson County narrowly swung away from Clinton in 2016. This county contains the city of Beaumont. Beto should be in good shape here, though. Obama carried this county in 2012.
Goal 4 is going to happen. Beto should do extremely well in these counties and pad his raw vote total significantly. The data suggests that Dallas and Harris are going to swing towards Beto. I don’t have much to add here, other than the numbers look good. That’s it, honestly. I’m fairly certain that we’ll see this on election night.
Goal 5 looks very probable, too. I have a hard time believing that places like Hidalgo County are going to trend towards Cruz this year. The amount of enthusiasm and early voters make it likely that Beto will achieve this goal. His margin here will grow, relative to Clinton’s 2016 performance in the Rio Grande basin.
Now, for point 6, I can’t offer substantive evidence here. This is something that we’ll only be able to confirm in the election postmortem. I don’t dispute that Republican turnout in the early vote here is strong. But crucially, Republican turnout is still below its 2016 peak. While the percentages haven’t changed, the raw vote totals have. This helps Beto out a bit. In addition, a cursory glance at the swing map for 2016 vs 2012 suggests that these counties should swing towards Beto, at least marginally.
Goal number 7 is where I’m a bit pessimistic. I don’t see Beto getting better margins here than Hillary. His GOTV effort may yield some new voters, but this is also a very rural and white area of Texas. I don’t see Beto improving much over Hillary. It’s just not in the cards for rural East Texas.
West Texas is a similar story...sort of. The data suggests that Democrats can break 20% in Randall County and will likely break 30% in Lubbock and Potter counties. But it’s a similar story in the rural counties here. O’Rourke really needs to run up the margins in Dallas, Bexar, Harris, and Travis.
(Courtesy of the Texas Tribune)
Just thirty counties in Texas make up over 78% of the total number of registered voters. The Texas Tribune estimates that these counties exceeded total early vote turnout in 2012 by nearly 1%. 40% of registered voters have cast a ballot. In 2014, total voter turnout was an abysmal 33.5%. This year, it’ll likely top 54%. These numbers are good news for Beto. Maybe not enough to win, but definitely enough to give Ted Cruz the fight of his life.
