The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.
Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.
I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.
I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.
What?
It's just a jab at the idea that, after two terms of incumbency, the ruling party is favored.
