There was a Romney surge following the first debate.
Not really. Those weren't neutrals that Romney picked up but lean-Romney types who needed either a great Romney debate performance or a poor Obama one to get them to vote for him. Even f you count that as a surge it was far mre an anti-Obama surge than a pro-Romney surge.
I would agree with that,
As imo the momentum nationally was going against Obama after his very poor first debate, until the last couple of weeks before the swing against him halted.
Ether way though I feel that Obama could have won because like Bush in 2004 he had far superior turnout model and campaign in general then his opponent.