What would an Obama defeat look like in 2012?

[Kevin]

Just curious what would a perspective comfortable defeat look like for Obama in 2012? Should it happen.

[Kevin]

If the GOP really wants to win in 2012, I say they better nominate a governor or a former one. Like Huckabee, Jindal, Jeb Bush, Romney etc.

[Kevin]

If the GOP really wants to win in 2012, I say they better nominate a governor or a former one. Like Huckabee, Jindal, Jeb Bush, Romney etc.

Or Palin . . .

Any one except her also.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

I think Pennsylvania would flip, especially considering if it follows through this year by electing Republicans to both the governorship, the Senate, as well as at least a couple of seats to the House of Representatives.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  

I would say that Virginia's march to the left has been halted. As the state has elected Republicans overwhelmingly in the past year or so. In addition, Obama and the Democratic policies pursued thus far on the national level attract high disapproval in VA. This is even true in NOVA, which is one of the key reasons why Gerry Connolly is in trouble for reelection.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  

I would say that Virginia's march to the left has been halted. As the state has elected Republicans overwhelmingly in the past year or so. In addition, Obama and the Democratic policies pursued thus far on the national level attract high disapproval in VA. This is even true in NOVA, which is one of the key reasons why Gerry Connolly is in trouble for reelection.

That was an off-year election in which the electoral size was down -- way down.  Two recent polls showed Obama support above the national average, which is consistent with Virginia being R+2 instead of R+5. "The same reason" that distinguishes Michigan from either Minnesota or Wisconsin (large African-American population) also distinguishes Virginia from Iowa.

If you want to give credit to anyone for making Virginia the strongest state for Obama south of the Potomac and the Ohio... then it could be former Governor Douglas Wilder, who gave Virginia clear evidence that a black politician could offer unobjectionable leadership. 

Poll wise I've seen constant disapproval of Obama and Democratic policies overall since the beginning of the year.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

I think Pennsylvania would flip, especially considering if it follows through this year by electing Republicans to both the governorship, the Senate, as well as at least a couple of seats to the House of Representatives.

If the GOP wins PA, it will be on the count of a swing year plus better candidates not so much the state itself.

Gov:  As of now Lean R
Sen:  Tossup/Tilt Dem.  R's usually overpoll

PA-3: Lean D
PA-4: Tossup
PA-6: Lean R for now because of climate.  More competitive in future.
PA-7: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  I'll concede because of the wave, but prime to switch back to D in 2012 due to liberal trends.  Independent Tea Party candidate from the right could allow Lentz to pull < 50% and win.  
PA-8:  Likely D.  Mike Fitzpatrick has to not only contend with Indy RW Tom Lingenfelter, but a CP candidate as well. Pat Murphy is strong on his own.
PA-10: Conservative district peeking at Watch List.  If Marino could get his act together on fundraising different story. Safe D for now.
PA-11: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  Think you got us here.  Kanjo is a joke and I think Biden bailed his ass out in 2008.  Barletta is strong on hot button issue here, but has his own dirty laundry.
PA-12: Likely D
PA-13:  Peeking at Watch List. Safe D, but could enter in strong wave I'll admit.
PA-15: Likely R
PA-16: Peeking at Watch List.  Definitely not 2010, but watch in future if district stays intact. Trending strongly Dem, but Safe R for now.
PA-17:  See PA-13, but a more conservative district.
PA-18: See PA-16, but unlike the 16th, the 18th is actually trending rightward.

Too early to tell and what district(s) will be eliminated or even added.  When you really think about  in worst case scenarios for PA CD's:

Worst for Dems:  GOP takes all, but 1, 2 and 14.  13 would require a strong wave or moderately bad scandal.

GOP:  PA goes all D but 5, 9, and 19.  And even 5 COULD vote for a conservative D AND a wave.  16 same as 13 above but reverse, but I see it trending D.

Speaking of prospects, how do Casey's look for 2012? From what I understand his approvals aren't so hot.