Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[OneJ]

Yeah I can dig a Biden/CCM ticket.

I’ve said it multiple threads and that Wash Post/ABC poll confirms it: Biden-Warren would be the best ticket.

Nice. The only true issue is her age, but I definitely believe Warren brings more to the table than Harris or Klobuchar.

[OneJ]

Stac[e]y Abrams, a rising Democratic star who lost the Georgia governor’s race in 2018, has also come up in conversations, the sources say, though not as much as some of the others.

Very unfair!

Adam, why do you think Abrams would be the best choice? While she would undoubtedly bring some desperately needed enthusiasm to the campaign, IDK if people will trust her experience enough to be VP considering Biden is pushing 80.

She's the only black candidate in the 21st century besides Barack Obama who has shown an ability to elevate turnout and support among black voters above/beyond the very predictable 89-92% D support and [BVAP 5-7 points lower than WVAP] turnout. Literally the only reason for picking Harris is rooted in one or more variants of "she's a black woman - she'll turn out the black vote!" (whether people own up to it explicitly, or want to use some variant of "she's articulate!", "she's professional", or any other number of tropes designated for black people who don't fulfill negative stereotypes). Do keep in mind that almost every single black statewide candidate across the nation has generated the exact amount of support and turnout as non-black statewide candidates over the past 20 years. People need to abandon the tropes.

Harris hasn't demonstrated any capacity to elevate black turnout or support in her own races. She barely won her first statewide race, and ran against a fellow Democrat, loser and serial dabber in 2016 - big whoop.

Abrams also doesn't have any preexisting issues with any aspect of the Democratic base, unlike Harris. She's younger, more dynamic and a better speaker if you're looking at ability to persuade or entertain (Harris is basically the black female equivalent of Buttigieg when you get down to brass tacks; stiff, boring, wants people to project their beliefs onto her rather than the other way around).

Let's be real: everybody - from Biden and the DNC, all the way down to random voters - wants a black female VP specifically for the electoral benefits. Harris has no history of showing she can deliver. A half-Indian, half-Jamaican non-ADOS descendant not being the best choice for this task in the United States of America shouldn't be all that surprising to people who aren't wrapped up in thinking black voters are a monolith and will just respond with enthusiasm regardless of the face so long as there's enough melanin. Abrams is a far better pick along the lines of why people are considering Harris in the first place.

Personally, I have many criticisms of Abrams as a candidate in the gubernatorial election of 2018, but in a national race, nah: she's the best choice if you're looking to mobilize black voters in a post-Obama world.

Really this. It honestly puzzles me to see people here arguing against Abrams being on the ticket with Biden and support Harris instead when Harris has demonstrated less ability in doing particularly well among Black voters and has shown that she possesses quite a few flaws that Abrams either doesn't have or has to a lesser degree.

I'm skeptical a lot of these supposed Abrams benefits with AAs would show up outside of Georgia. Abrams had a very high profile and ran a very good campaign inside GA, but is her 2018 strength repeatable in Detroit or Philadelphia? I'm not so sure.

In the case of Detroit, it'll be especially challenging due to the declining Black population there.

It's also worth noting that Philly wasn't really a cause of why Pennsylvania flipped. In fact, turnout there in 2016 was very similar to 2012 (~709,000 in '16 vs. ~690,000 in '12). The real problem was all of those rural/exurban counties across the state swinging so hard against Hillary.

[OneJ]

There are a lot of soundbites of Warren criticizing Biden. I'd be very surprised if he picked her.

Eh, Harris has that one big attack on Biden at the debate so the Biden/Warren "feud" probably doesn't matter too much. And it seems like their relationship has improved since those days anyway.

[OneJ]

The thing about Biden's VP is that I consider there to be close to a 50% chance said VP assumes executive power during his hypothetical presidency. Biden's age is going to come in hard against him when he takes on the most stressful job in the nation. The list of potentials are numerous: death, resignation because of incapability, a figurehead govt with empowered cabinet portfolios, or he may resign to give the VP incumbency going into 2024. This makes VP selection all the more important since democrats are actually going to need to visualize said person taking the oath of office. Outside picks therefore are even more risky than ever, and selecting a governor with executive experience may not be the worst decision.

See this is it. When choosing his VP Biden carefully needs to consider who’s prepared to carry out the presidency and lead the party should he leave for any reason more so than appealing to “x” demographic, especially when there are little to no evidence that bringing in specific candidates can ramp up turnout among respective groups (Harris, CCM, Warren, Klobuchar, etc.).

[OneJ]

By the numbers: Black voters in Michigan and Wisconsin picked Abrams as their favorite hypothetical running mate for Biden, at 36% and 38%, respectively.

Harris underperformed with black voters in Michigan (22%) relative to her overall support in these two states, and she did 10 percentage points better with black voters in Wisconsin.

Abrams’ performance without being a sitting senator or having just run for president, shows potential to build a broad coalition and turn out voters.

Wow! I can't believe nobody on Atlas ever vocalized this before!

Let's all jump on the Harris Train!

Hopefully this puts the "Harris will increase black turnout" argument to rest.

[OneJ]

Warren will not be VP. Once again, I don't think people realize how, whether it's right or wrong, polarizing she is to many people, especially to the moderates that Biden needs.

Maybe, but remember that Biden is at the top of the ticket. The focus will be on him almost all of the time even if he chooses someone like Warren. Not many people base their votes on a nominee's running mate in the first place, so I don't see a mass loss among potential moderate suburbanites who'd probably vote for Biden anyway.

McCain did not have a good running mate in Palin, but it's not one of the reasons why that ticket lost. Pence holds some pretty extreme views that most of the country won't even dare support, yet that didn't prevent the Trump/Pence ticket from winning. Hillary chose Kaine as the "boring, inoffensive white man" to give her ticket "balance" and we know what happened.

And since Warren is brought up as being polarizing what about Harris? Harris isn't exactly moderate and doesn't have the moderate "image" that Biden possesses. Her being a black woman could also affect how some voters see her as there's evidence that voters often perceive women and minority candidates to be more liberal than their male and white counterparts anyway. It should also be noted that she's from San Francisco, California.

EDIT: I know it's a long post, but there's something relieving about making a good, long effort post.

[OneJ]

Whitmer has only been governor for like a year and a half. At least let her finish her first term and lead her state through this pandemic then she can move up.

[OneJ]

Look, I like Abrams but she’s simply doing too much here.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1255791503219265536

Looks good for Harris.

[OneJ]

If we're going to talk about Warren's electoral track record then it's only fair to bring up Harris' as in 2010 she only defeated the Republican by 0.8%.

Regardless, talk about who'd be a good running mate based on their electoral record isn't really helpful since voters aren't going to vote for the running mate, but instead are voting for whoever's at the top of the ticket.

[OneJ]

I don't know why Warren is getting the momentum atm, I personally like her but I feel Biden will still go with Kamala Harris as the most likely option. Warren and Biden's history with each other has been extremely rocky at best and I think that is going to factor into the final decision.

1.) Harris had that big debate moment calling Biden out on live TV. That's something the public, in general, knows more about and yet Harris is still high on his list.

2.) This article sums up just about everything. There's a reason why Warren is on Biden's shortlist in the first place.

“I feel like they get along better than people who have always agreed with each other in this way that sometimes happens,” said Jared Bernstein, who was Biden’s chief economist while he was vice president and is on one of his task forces now. “I think they would both tell you that they’ve learned a lot from each other.”

[OneJ]

I can honestly say that Warren's chances have shot up. Remember when people thought Biden was only going to pick either Klobuchar or Harris? Yeah, I remember too.

[OneJ]

I can honestly say that Warren's chances have shot up. Remember when people thought Biden was only going to pick either Klobuchar or Harris? Yeah, I remember too.

What in the world makes you think that? If anything, after that CTG interview fiasco, Harris is the clear frontrunner.

Charlamagne was a big cheerleader for Harris during her run.

All I'm saying is that as Klobuchar's chances went way down, Warren's chances have gone up as a result of the backlash against Klobuchar. To be fair, I think Harris is the favorite though I have my reasons why I think Warren isn't as far behind her as many think. My point has nothing to do with the Charlamagne's interview thing. In fact, I'd argue that the Klobuchar backlash increases Harris' chances more than CTG's interview.

Im not sure identity politics has anything to do with the dislike some have for Amy

As the previous poster pointed out Elizabeth Warren, another top contender for VP, doesn’t elicit similar antagonism from communities of color.

She is also white yet I do not see any black activist hating on her or telling Biden not to pick her

Well one thing is that you have to remember that a good chunk of Black activists actually like Warren and even supported her despite not having too high support from Black voters themselves.

[OneJ]

Also, by that argument Biden is already using identity politics to select his VP: by committing to select a woman. The whole identity politics term is often misused and abused and I think it’s best people should refrain from using it too often.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1270053624677367808

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1272668465124585472?s=20

Looks like Harris isn't the only one raking in large amounts for Biden, unsurprisingly. Go Warren!

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1273004134044782592
This article basically sort of corroborates something from the Politico article that claimed Klobuchar's chances of becoming VP had collapsed: that despite being white Warren would likely get the least backlash thanks in part to a fair number of Black activists and voters who really like her policies that they believe would be quite beneficial for the Black community at large. It also helps that unlike Harris or Demings, Warren hasn't been involved in a profession of criminal justice.

It also lists a few potential drawbacks: her age and ideology. Plus the fact that Harris is undeniably the frontrunner at this point.

[OneJ]

I don't understand Warren as a VP pick. Look at how she did in the primary and I understand the demographics of places like Atlas and Twitter. This makes me comes to the conclusion that the only thing Warren will add to the ticket is an increase in numbers among college-educated whites in already liberal and democratic areas.

Other than that she a much riskier bet compared to Harris or even Demmings for that matter. Also please do not try to reply to whitesplain to me how Harris and Demmings are cops and Warren is actually the right pick for black voters because she has an array of plans and ideas that will help them. If that's true why waste her efforts as VP and not just stay in the Senate? 

Fair point, but if you make that conclusion then wouldn't Harris pull in similar people?

[OneJ]

I definitely see this as one scenario for how the VP search could play out:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273574062820921345

If only Duckworth was more well-known...

[OneJ]

Regardless RFK, my friend, to say that Warren never did anything to help Black people in order to justify why you support Harris is being pretty disingenuous. This is coming from someone who thinks that Harris is fit for the job despite my own concerns about her.

[OneJ]

If he wants to go the Hillary route and (foolishly) bank on the support of Black Americans just because he was O's VP,  then so be it. But representation matters. Hillary learned that the hard way with reduced AfAm support after choosing milquetoast Tim Kaine of all people.

It was inevitable for Black turnout and support to decline as Obama wasn't on the ballot. I also doubt Hillary picking Kaine for the ticket significantly hurt her in this area even if he didn't help her much at all.

[OneJ]

Is it really that horrible a move for Biden to announce on the 1st compared to the 17th/18th?

I'm almost inclined to think that folks don't want Biden to announce his running mate until that person walks towards the podium on the 19th (Which honestly does sound exciting) or the day before the first ballots gets mailed

Agreed. Especially as this year's convention won't be the ordinary convention we're used to seeing.

[OneJ]

Optics, optics, optics. Polling be damed, the vp to the first black president will not pass over qualified black women in favour of a 70 year old white woman. There will be backlash

There'll be some sort of backlash should Biden choose Harris. No matter who Biden chooses there will be some downsides and disappointed/angry folks.