Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[OneJ]

At about 8:00, I passed by the church that serves my precinct. The parking spaces looked packed. Didn’t see an empty spot. I didn’t see the line though.

[OneJ]

Never will I ever trust the polls again, lol.

[OneJ]

Keep in mind that Montana does have a strong Democratic bias when counting votes at first.

[OneJ]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet.

Yeah, neither has NYT. I'm thinking it was a mistake for CNN to do so. It would be far from the first time they had to retract a call and the other person ended up winning.

Lol. CNN just did that last night for IL-13.

[OneJ]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?...

Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count.

Another example of this was in NE-02 where Bacon led Eastman 54-46 at "100%" then Bacon's margin went down to 52-48 still at "100%". Now it's 3.2 points.

[OneJ]

What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like?

[OneJ]

*One week ago*

 Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here!

Pretty much this whole thing, but especially the bolded part screams “elitism” to me, lol!

[OneJ]

Remind me again why none of the networks have called the 48th for Rouda? The results probably won’t even be close when all the votes are counted.

Yep. Rouda has already announced that he and his staff think they’ve won now.

[OneJ]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

[OneJ]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close.

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

She certainly had the best chance of the three.  Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close.

I agree. My statement was really referring to the ones who were 100% sure that McSaly would win.

[OneJ]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

Makes me sleep better at night. Please let Congressman Golden happen.

[OneJ]

Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County.

Walters is only up .4% now.

Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%.

From this Twitter page. The SOS page seems behind rn.
https://mobile.twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1062148406884294656