CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.

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Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/

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Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/

A little strange that we've heard nothing yet I mean its obvious it'll qualify but shouldn't we know by now? Also any idea on who the dems will run in the race? the only name I've really heard been floated is Villa

I kinda misled a bit in my post. Last Monday was the last day for counties to deliver signatures to the Secretary of State. Now, the Secretary of State has until next Thursday to report the totals.

And there were rumors a page or two back about two SoCal Assemblymen dipping their toes in the race, but that seemed to die as quickly as it took the rumor to emerge.

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That said, even if the recall effort had gotten help from left opposition, it would be boned by timing. Six months ago, if you squinted really hard, you could maybe see a situation where the pandemic got worse and Newsom was facing real opposition to his handling from both ends of the spectrum. Now vaccinations are proceeding at a rapid pace and Newsom has announced that the color-coded tiers for counties will be gone in June and there's a general sense (justified or not) that California has done really well over the course of the pandemic. The French Laundry incident isn't the sort of thing that voters care about if they approve of the government's record. Newsom won 62% in 2018 and it's entirely reasonable to think that No on recall will get 60% this year.

Kevin Faulconer's issue that he keeps coming back to is that schools should be open, but the issue is that schools are already opening, and whenever the election happens remote schooling is likely to be a thing of the past. More generally the issue is that nobody cares. In one sense the setup of the recall election is appealing for a Republican candidate; since the election is quite literally a referendum on Newsom, voters are thinking about Newsom and not whether they're willing to vote for a Republican. Unfortunately for Faulconer, in order for that to work he has to at least get past the other recall candidates, and it's not clear whether anyone outside San Diego has even heard of him. John Cox, who lost by a massive margin in 2018, is not seen by anyone as a credible future governor, but his presence certainly poses difficulty for Faulconer in getting attention and votes. The likes of Caitlyn Jenner are worse for him; if the story is whether Caitlyn Jenner can be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger, nobody is going to notice that Kevin Faulconer is trying to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In one sense it doesn't matter since this seems right now like an unwinnable race, but a poor performance for Faulconer this year would make it difficult for him to present himself as a credible candidate for 2022. California Republicans are perpetually in trouble (hence their reliance on self-funders), and having two gubernatorial elections in two years will certainly stretch them thin. If Republicans are all focused on this year, it's hard to say who'll be left for next year. My dark horse prediction is that the 2022 general election will pit Gavin Newsom against Chamath Palihapitiya.

Agreed with all of this, particularly the bolded. The only thing different from any other anti-Newsom/Democrat campaign is the French Laundry incident. And I've damn near forgot that it's 6 months old & it'll be 12 months by the time the recall occurs.

Put that to the side and there's not much to the recall campaign. Despite my irritation with the vaccine rollout being slow & easy to game, California has done a great job in the recovery phase. We've had no surge whatsoever in the last month and we now have the lowest case rate in the lower 48. Around 44% of the population has gotten at least 1 dose, which is on the higher end of the country.

By June, the tier system will be gone, most everything should be reopened, schools will be preparing to start the new school year with fully physical learning and indoor events should be occurring with 50% capacity or more.

By the fall, I fully expect the recall to have morphed from an anti-lockdown campaign to a typical CA GOP campaign we've seen over the last decade; High taxes, nanny state, increased homelessness, increased crime, anti-immigration, etc. You know, a lot of the original reasons behind the recall when it started pre-lockdown.

And despite the wishes/desires of a select few here who can't stand Newsom or the problems of California, I expect it to go as successfully as it has for the CA GOP in the last decade. I'm expecting a similar result & map to the 2018 Gubernatorial race. Hell, I'm not so sure OC will support the recall.

Newsom is only as unpopular as he was pre-pandemic, which is still better than the likes of Scott Walker & not even in the same league as Davis or Schwarzenegger's lows. By the time California returns to "normal" and folks start voting on the recall question, I wouldn't be shocked if his approvals only rise by then.

And that's not even thinking about how the CA GOP is gonna work with 2022 in the face of a potentially expensive & humiliating 2021. The Class of '20 congressmembers better hope redistricting works in their favor & the GOP doesn't get locked out of next year's Gubernatorial race (and Senate race, for that matter).

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She is going to fail spectacularly.

Dead on arrival

Both of these may as well be describing the recall.

Also, the GOP now has an establishment-backed politician who half the base can't stand, a Trump-backed official who half the base can't stand, their previous gubernatorial loser, a former Congressman who hasn't held office since Schwarzenegger's first term & now a transgender celebrity. All fighting over a base constantly in a tug-of-war between the moderate or MAGA platforms.

I'll be shocked if the party comes out of this unscathed. I know they were gonna look schizophrenic during this year, but it could exceed even my expectations.

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I honestly hope the CAGOP doesn’t have a debate cause I’m sure one candidate would constantly misgender her on purpose

I'm expecting it at this point. This is gonna be an embarrassing year for the CA GOP (Before what could also be an embarrassing 2022 for them)

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Unless the pro-recall folks run a flawless campaign, COVID recovery takes a sudden nosedive and Newsom's standing looks perilous by August, all this talk of Caitlyn Jenner's chances & campaign skills are moot.

As of now, I predict Newsom defeating the recall by anywhere between 57-43 or 60-40

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I will say, I'll laugh if Caitlyn Jenner ends up getting more votes than Ose, Cox, Grenell or Falconer

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Endorsed. California did so well under the Terminator, I can only imagine we'd do even better under a Transformer.



(Have a sense of humor YE, for god's sake)

Ah the old "This is satire" defense

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I guess I'm glad the presumptions can end. Although we've known for weeks now so not exactly climactic. The only thing that matters/mattered is when the votes are cast.

1.5 million is a very low threshold. Still, this recall would've never happened if it wasn't for the French Laundry incident happening within the 4 month extension window. I do worry that, unless some reforms are put in place, there'll be a serious GOP-led recall for every Democratic Governor in the near-future. Only a third of Trump 2016 voters are needed.

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LA Times with a scathing editorial that they probably wrote back in January. Not that it's significant or anything, but it certainly restates some of my problems with this fever dream:

"And who can we thank for this miscarriage of the state’s direct democracy system? A small group of conservatives aided by a motley assortment of Donald J. Trump supporters, QAnon believers, anti-vaccine activists and COVID-19 deniers who seem to think that recalling Newsom will somehow lead to a far-right renaissance in this deeply blue state."

This recall never should have happened — and probably wouldn’t have gone forward at any other time. Even with the state’s generous recall petition circulation period of 160 days, the effort was lagging until a judge in November granted a four month extension. Another stroke of luck: Those four months corresponded with one the darkest periods of political discourse in the nation and the deadliest period of the COVID-19 pandemic. People were scared and angry and looking for someone to blame.

But this recall is not about Newsom’s handling of the pandemic, or at least it didn’t start out as one when it was launched in February 2020. All one has to do is read the small print of the recall petition (literally — it’s tiny) to understand that Newsom was targeted for governing like a California Democrat, which is what voters expected when they gave him an overwhelming victory in 2018.

The recall election might be good for the careers of a few candidates, but it won’t be great for Californians, who will have to endure what is likely to be months of invective, silliness and contentious debate in a year when they were supposed to get a break from all that. And for what? If Newsom survives the recall, state taxpayers will have spent as much as $400 million (in addition to the untold millions ponied up by campaign donors) on a special election that changed nothing. If he loses, he’ll be replaced by someone who hasn’t just led the most populous state in the nation through the worst crisis in recent history and who will instantly have to start running for the regularly scheduled gubernatorial primary a few months later. No matter how you cut it, in this election, Californians lose.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-04-26/california-newsom-recall-nightmare-begins

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Two stories to show just how DOA this recall is


LA Times: In dramatic turnaround, California now has the lowest coronavirus case rate in the U.S.

Months after a coronavirus surge sickened hundreds of thousands of people, left thousands dead and pushed hospitals to their breaking point, California’s virus case rate is now the lowest of any state in the nation, federal figures show.

Although the distinction doesn’t lessen the heavy toll exacted by the fall-and-winter wave, it does demonstrate the tremendous strides the state has made in its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic — progress that, to this point, has not been interrupted even as the state more widely reopens its economy.

For the record:

9:34 AM, Apr. 27, 2021An earlier version of this article reported that Dr. Mark Ghaly, the California Health and Human Services secretary, said that until October diners should probably eat outdoors at restaurants. Ghaly said people will probably prefer dining outdoors at restaurants instead of indoors until that time.

California’s latest seven-day rate of new cases was 32.5 per 100,000 people, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Over that same period, Hawaii had the second-lowest rate, at 36.8, and the nationwide rate was 114.7. California has for weeks reported one of the lowest case rates in the nation — though the top spot had remained largely out of reach.[...]

LA Times: L.A. County hits yellow tier marker; widest reopening could be a week away

Los Angeles County has one foot in the most lenient category of the state’s COVID-19 reopening system, a momentous achievement for a region that was once so ravaged by the coronavirus that it was considered the epicenter of the pandemic in California.

According to new state data released Tuesday, the county’s coronavirus case rate — adjusted based on the number of tests performed — dropped to 1.9 new cases per day per 100,000 people, reaching the threshold to enter California’s final yellow tier.

The county would have to maintain its numbers until next week to advance.

“It’s so encouraging to see the work we’re doing together having such a profound effect on the health and well-being of people all across our communities,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Monday, before the new state tiering data were unveiled.

Taking this next step would cap the county’s stunning rise up the California reopening ladder. It was only about six weeks ago that L.A. County first moved out of the most restrictive, purple tier, in which indoor operations are suspended or severely limited across a host of business sectors.

In the yellow tier, the last rung of California’s four-category, color-coded ladder, most businesses can operate indoors, with modifications.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-04-26/california-lowest-coronavirus-case-rate-nation

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-04-27/la-county-hits-yellow-tier-widest-reopening-may-come-soon

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To the surprise of no one, it seems there's already conflict on the pro-recall side.


Sacramento Bee: Whose recall is it, anyway? Gavin Newsom’s California critics spar over money, credit

[...]After working for more than a year to qualify the recall for the ballot, the lead organizers of the Recall Gavin 2020 campaign are feuding with groups eager to raise money and send their own messages about getting rid of the governor.

The state Republican Party, the Republican Governors Association and several state political action committees are fundraising and promoting the recall. While organizers say they’re excited to see a wide swath of Californians join the cause, they worry the movement is being overtaken by the political establishment.

“We united the state under the one cause of recalling Gavin Newsom, which brought a lot of people together,” said Mike Netter, one of the leaders on the recall petition. “Now that it’s ready to hit the ballot, everybody’s jumping on the bandwagon to try to raise money and create publicity for themselves.”

Over the last few months, as the recall picked up steam and media attention, various individuals across California have launched their own campaigns, and asked voters to lend their voices, and bank accounts, to the cause.

Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, is chair of Reform California, a political action committee that backs conservative initiatives in the Golden State. In the last several months, Reform California has encouraged its members to help it fight the recall and donate to the PAC.

Not everyone appreciates the support.

“There’s a lot of grifters that are coming through,” said Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for Rescue California, which operates in partnership with the original committee, the Patriot Coalition.[...]

Lead recall proponent Orrin Heatlie and his fellow organizers were outraged to hear DeMaio weigh in. They suspect he’s trying to collect names from recall backers to build his own base of support.

“Forgive my profanity, but that mother------ had nothing to do with stopping that bill or voicing opposition here in Sacramento,” Heatlie said. “I am extremely upset. What the hell has this guy done for the recall?”

Recall organizers also took issue with another recall-supportive webpage, promoted by former GOP Assemblyman Travis Allen, who left office in 2018. The page is funded by the PAC Allen helped found, Take Back California, though he’s no longer involved with the committee.[...]

Heatlie said he donated to Travis’ effort in early 2020, and signed up under the impression that it was a legitimate recall petition. Only after further research did he realize his digital signature didn’t count.[...]

The debates are gonna be a sh*tshow.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article250961174.html#storylink=hpdigest_politics (Article may be behind a paywall)

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Only bringing this up because it's a local-ish story for me.


Press Enterprise: Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt to run in Newsom recall

Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt announced Friday night, April 30, that he will run for governor as a Libertarian in the upcoming recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Hewitt made the announcement before a crowd of at least 30 supporters gathered in downtown Riverside.

In an interview before speaking, Hewitt said he was running because “I’ve seen Riverside County shortchanged.” He cited the fact that the county doesn’t get its fair share of state funding and didn’t get enough coronavirus vaccine when doses were in short supply.

Hewitt’s campaign, he said, will feature a theme of “innovation overall.” Top priorities will include water, housing and education. Hewitt said he could balance his duties as a county supervisor with his campaign by skipping the ceremonial aspects of his current post.[...]

Hewitt previously formed an exploratory committee for a 2022 gubernatorial bid and said in early April he was open to running for governor next year or in a recall. If Newsom survives the recall, he would face re-election next year.

A former Calimesa mayor, Hewitt was elected in 2018 to represent the Board of Supervisors’ Fifth District, which includes the San Gorgonio Pass, Moreno Valley, Perris and Menifee. His upset win over former GOP Assemblyman Russ Bogh was lauded by the national Libertarian Party.

Hewitt is up for re-election in 2022, meaning he could run in the recall and not give up his supervisor seat.

As a supervisor, Hewitt has voted against most labor deals with county employee unions. He’s also been a critic of coronavirus business restrictions and tried unsuccessfully to get the county to forge its own reopening path.[...]

Hewitt also might face questions about a claim filed by a county employee who alleged Hewitt sexually harassed her during a visit to a Cherry Valley skilled nursing facility last May. That claim was settled for $50,000 in taxpayer funds.

Another claim, filed April 8 by a female ex-Hewitt staffer, accuses the supervisor and his chief of staff of “making disparaging and vulgar comments” and engaging in age and gender discrimination prior to the employee leaving county government. That claim is still pending, county spokeswoman Brooke Federico said.

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/Cox & bear

CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Par for the course, honestly.

The CA GOP are such a directionless clown show. This is why I was never scared of a recall. Not with them being the alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if this recall effort ends up hastening their downfall more than if the recall never happened. Their looniness under the biggest spotlight yet.

And we haven't even gotten to the debates. Oh God the debates.

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/Cox & bear

CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Par for the course, honestly.

The CA GOP are such a directionless clown show. This is why I was never scared of a recall. Not with them being the alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if this recall effort ends up hastening their downfall more than if the recall never happened. Their looniness under the biggest spotlight yet.

And we haven't even gotten to the debates. Oh God the debates.

I honestly think the debates will help Newsom cause there will no doubt be two types: a Yes v No debate a la Brexit or the Scotland, and a successor debate. The successor debate will be a clown show...and who in the Yes camp is prominent or composed enough to go on the stage with Newsom? The separation harms the GOP.

I came across the 2003 replacement debate sans-Davis, but did he ever have a townhall or debate that year to defend himself?

I'd expect one this year to go down like the 2018 primary debates, with Newsom laughing as the GOP fight about who's the toughest anti-vaxxer

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Only fair that I bring up some of the conflicts on the anti-recall side.


LA Times: Split Emerging Among California Democrats Over Most Effective Argument Against Newsom Recall

For months, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic establishment have painted the effort to recall the governor as a Republican power grab fueled by supporters of former President Trump and hard-right activists.

But a divide is emerging among Democrats over whether this attack is the smartest approach now that the measure has garnered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Some party leaders are arguing that a wiser tactic is to recognize that some Democratic and independent voters signed recall petitions because they were frustrated by the hardships caused by the economic and school closures during the pandemic.

Christine Pelosi, who just finished a 10-year term as chair of the party’s women’s caucus, said she knows of Democrats from the Marina District in San Francisco as well as from the rural edges of the state who signed the recall petitions. By not recognizing the validity of their hurt and instead focusing on partisanship, Pelosi said, recall opponents are turning off Democratic and independent voters who could be brought back into the fold.

“We have to begin with compassionate empathy for the terrible year they had,” said Pelosi, the daughter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and a member of the Democratic National Committee. “If we’re not speaking to the reality of people’s truth, then they’re going to become engaged against us.”

Pelosi was the most prominent delegate who urged party officials during their virtual convention on Sunday to strip language that referred to the recall as “Republican” and “partisan” from a resolution opposing the effort to oust Newsom from office.

The effort was unsuccessful, with 593 delegates voting to eliminate the descriptions and 627 voting to keep it.

“This is a Republican recall, this is a partisan ploy,” said state party Chairman Rusty Hicks, who authored the resolution with Sen. Alex Padilla. “As I led off our convention by saying, [the recall is] an attempt to get around the barrier that California Republicans can’t seem to overcome, and that is winning statewide office in California.”[...]

“We’re just telling it like it is,” he [Anti-recall campaign spokesman Nathan Click] said, adding that the resolution, with the language labeling the recall a Republican and partisan effort intact, was approved by Democrats on a 1,011-111 vote.

Earlier this year, recall advisors said that about two-thirds of petition signatories were Republicans, 9% were Democrats and the remaining quarter were registered without party preference.

While there’s no way to verify these figures, Democratic strategist Garry South said that if these figures are true, that means less than 2% of the state’s 10.7 million registered Democrats signed recall petitions.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-05-04/california-democrats-argument-newsom-recall

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Also, Caitlyn Jenner just released her first campaign video.

Outside of the COVID-related clips (And even some of them look like retreads), it looks like a video any statewide California Republican could've run. And I'm sure it'll break through the electorate with just as much success as previous years.

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Also, Caitlyn Jenner just released her first campaign video.

Outside of the COVID-related clips (And even some of them look like retreads), it looks like a video any statewide California Republican could've run. And I'm sure it'll break through the electorate with just as much success as previous years.

It's actually an effective ad. But Jenner is a joke

Of course it looks effective & sleek. The question is will that messaging land? Considering it's basically what every statewide Republican has ran in the last 10 years, I doubt it

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New SurveyUSA poll:

April 30-May 2, 642 RV, MoE: 5.3%

First question
47% Remain in office
36% Recall
17% Not sure

Second question
9% Cox
5% Grenell
5% Jenner
3% Faulconer
3% Mercuri
3% Moorlach
3% Cernovich
3% Williams
2% Ose
26% Undecided
38% Would not support any

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e3ae1d7e-9d6e-44b2-b1f8-e51c51df9ea2

Very sad number for Faulconer lol also interestingly the Recall Leads narrowly among 18-30-year-olds and I can see that being true Newsoms very unpopular among my demographic I know many lefty young people who are undecided on the recall or supporting it it being about even with young voters right now makes sense to me.

Could be true, could not be true. But SurveyUSA's crosstabs have always been a bit finicky. I'd like another poll to see if young voters are a pro-recall group.

Like that one poll that got a bit of attention here due to Hispanics being more pro-recall than whites, then looking more like an outlier with each poll afterwards.

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Not sure if I'm surprised or not, but it feels like Faulconer has been MIA for months now. I completely forgot he was running.

Grennel is getting the Trumpist attention, Jenner the celebrity attention and now Cox with the bear thing (It may be stupid, but at least it gets him in the news a bit). Faulconer is gonna have to do something to get his name out and I'm not sure it's yelling for schools to reopen at the same time most schools are reopened.

We'll see as we get closer to the summer/fall for things to really get under way. But as of right now, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up finishing 3rd or lower.

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What a clown.
/Jenner on Hannity

Reason #3185 for why the CA GOP is a clown show: They feel the answer to the $10M+ Governor being 'elitist' is to replace him with someone worth $100M.

Reason #3186: The cries about homelessness would probably resonate better if they weren't coming from multimillionaire businesspeople.

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While Newsom could be a little more visionary and pass more good legislation, he's overall a pretty good governor. I don't get the disdain for him. The budget situation is excellent and a great accomplishment Brown, one of the best governors ever, handed over to him. Back in 2003, the large deficits were one reason Davis was voted out.

I can't wait to see Mr. 1000 pound bear and his buddies fail badly. And because it's so much fun, they will be slaughtered again in 2022.

A lot of the disdain is general California complaints; Homelessness, cost of living, housing shortage, etc. Apparently, none of those problems existed here until Newsom became Governor.

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Eh her candidacy/interest was known for weeks now

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He is not going to be president, never.

I could've told you that before he was elected Governor