CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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Also of note is that only 70% of Democrats approve of Newsom. There is a sizable and vocal minority within the party that has been dissatisfied with him because they don't think he's been strict enough with COVID prevention. They won't oust him though, and should kinda be disregarded as part of his opposition because they aren't going to vote for Faulconer under any circumstances and will flock home to Newsom in a 1-1 matchup.

And I'd be one of them. I've been really disappointed since the summer at Newsom's increased kowtowing to business groups & Chamber of Commerce types in regards to reopening. The statewide orders have lost a lot of the meat that it had back in the spring.

But I'd still rather have that than the laissez-faire approach that could happen under Cox or Faulconer. Unless a prominent Democrat runs that promises a stricter protocol, I'm voting against the recall. And that's even without the possibility of things improving by the time of the vote.

If Newsom is up for recall, so should every County Sheriff & Supervisor that are scoffing & making a joke out of the COVID orders.

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The troops are rallying, folks

/tweet

They've been rallying all week, folks

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-09/president-biden-opposes-recall-effort-gavin-newsom

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Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

You expecting Democrats to vote No on Recall and simply leave the replacement question blank? Because I'm sure as hell voting for a Democrat even while voting No

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A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

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A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Tom Bradley lost both the 1982 and 1986 gubernatorial elections.

"2 statewide elections 2 years in a row"

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The last thing the Recall campaign should want is to turn it into a Biden/Trump proxy election. Yet it's obvious that that's the direction it's headed (Even if Trump doesn't get involved).

And that's not even getting into the plausible (Perhaps likely?) scenario that physical learning will be expanded, economic hardship won't be as bad as projected & most Californians can easily get vaccinated by the time of the recall.

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Yeah, I can't see the recall succeeding if the CA GOP can't get their act together. They've been their own worst enemy for around/over a decade & this will be the biggest example of that:

GOP infighting in post-Trump era threatens California recall

LOS ANGELES (AP) — California Republicans eager to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could see their chances eroded by longstanding friction between the party’s conservative and moderate wings, which only has intensified in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s presidency.

The rift has been on open display in the gubernatorial candidacy of former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican centrist who has been endorsed by legislative leaders while being attacked as “liberal” by conservatives in his home county.

The head of the state Republican Party, Jessica Millan Patterson, is being challenged at a GOP convention this weekend by longtime conservative activist Steve Frank, who says the state party is attempting to silence conservative voices.

The vote on party leadership will come as Republicans nationally debate the way forward following Trump’s defeat in November and his role in provoking a deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

“This is California’s version of the national battle for the soul and the future of the Republican Party,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego.

While Trump lost California by more than 5 million votes last November, the state GOP has been emboldened by the prospect of a recall election aimed at Newsom, after picking off four congressional seats from Democrats. But “just when the Republican Party in California is showing signs of life, it’s deciding to cannibalize itself,” Kousser added.

Even before the convention began, there were signs of trouble.

A proposed rule change that would have allowed the party’s executive committee of about 100 people to endorse a recall candidate, or hand the decision to an even smaller group, rather than the full delegation of about 1,400 members was withdrawn after being criticized as a power grab.

Patterson, who asked the sponsor to withdraw the rule change, said in a letter to delegates that while the proposal was well-intentioned it was “dividing us at a time when nothing is more important than being unified.”

With a potential recall election approaching, the GOP needs a “a strong, unified Republican vision,“ she wrote.

But Frank, her rival to lead the party, said the now-withdrawn proposal showed Patterson “was literally trying to shove down our throats her choice for governor, and that’s just wrong.”
[..]

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-san-diego-kevin-faulconer-california-gavin-newsom-342646949c99a2e1a06dcab46f2fa5f2

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Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.

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The CA GOP needs to pick a lane already. This would be the 3rd (4th?) gubernatorial race in a row where they think they have their ducks in a row but it gets engulfed into a establishment/conservative stampede towards the extreme right.

I felt Newsom was gonna avoid a successful recall already, but doubly so if it turns into the latest & greatest installment of the schizophrenic saga that is the CA Republican Party.

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And even if he defeats the recall, his political career will have been damaged enough to probably prevent him from launching a successful presidential campaign.

He's Governor of California and the former Mayor of San Francisco. His presidential campaign was doomed 10 years ago, let alone 2 years ago.

If Kamala Harris was polling poorly in California before she dropped her presidential run, what chance does/did Newsom have pre-COVID?

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More of an opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.

LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort

If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.

It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.

The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.

A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.

Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.

Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.

The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.

In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.

“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
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https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances

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https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

Full poll: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-poll-governor-newsom-facing-potential-recall


My key takeaways

- So many decimals points
- Recall gets 38% with 14% undecided
- 16.4% of Democrats, 15.8% of Independents and 6.7% of Republicans are Undecided
- Newsom's job approval is at 42-40 with 18% undecided
- Undecideds in general make up double-digits whenever it's asked
- No Undecided/DK option for some of the questions
- Memerson

This poll & the recall is a waste of time.

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Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

You alright? Seems like you're going through something right now.

Anyway, I'm against the recall & Schwarzenegger was much worse.

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I can already tell this is gonna be a fun thread over the next 3-6 months

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In other news, Newsom & the CA Democratic Party officially launched their anti-recall campaign today.

The first slate of recall opponents (anti-recall endorsers?) they've announced are Alex Padilla, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Stacy Abrams, Katie Porter & Ro Khanna.

https://stoptherepublicanrecall.com/


Pretty clear that they're gonna be making this as much about Trump & Republicans 'stealing' a Governors seat as they possibly can (As they should be)

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A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

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Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

It's more to do with regional unity than organization. The Bay Area has higher turnout than most other regions & they're more-or-less on the same page politically.

In the case of something like Southern California, it's a much more fragmented net to cast and they're not exactly enthusiastic to turnout either. There's a wide gap between LA City Democrats & LA County Democrats, let alone those in OC, San Diego, Ventura, Inland Empire, etc.

Just look at the 2018 primary with with 'northerner' Newsom & 'southerner' Villaraigosa. The latter couldn't even win the city he was mayor of, whereas Newsom was winning some greater bay area counties 5 to 1

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A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Even if this scenario - that has a very slim chance to begin with - were to become true, Cox wouldn't get a full term in 2022. There is just no chance. He'd be a 14 month lame duck governor with a two thirds Democratic legislature passing laws over his vetos.

I am absolutely aware. I was just thinking in terms of the upcoming recall, knowing full well any Republican would be DOA next year.

I would still prefer not to live, even a day, in the world with California Governor Cox, Falcouner or Grenell. Especially if said Republican sputtered by with less than 45-50%

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Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

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Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You have a lot more faith in the California Republican Party than any one in California does.

It's not going to happen. Not with a "moderate" Mayor who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a Trumpist who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a random OC businessman who lost to Newsom by 24% and especially not with some early 2000s Congressman who faded away in 2018 for said random OC businessman & Travis f**kin Allen.

Simply put, the California Republican Party is a schizophrenic mess. Short of a Schwarzengger-like figure entering the race (You tell me who that'd be), they're gonna keep on pointing fingers while Newsom/Democrats just have to shake their heads & laugh.

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Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed

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I’m honestly kind of underwhelmed? Like I thought this was going to be “Gavin groped a staffer” or “Gavin made up the metrics he used to reopen the state early”

Based on how overblown folks are making it in the last 24 hours (Whatever "it" even is right now), it was never gonna be as juicy as the suspense made it seem.

Also, haven't seen anything juicy outside of that one Cerritos site. And with the announcement of eligibility requirements being lifted in 3 weeks, I'm sure it'll be buried today (Though I'm sure the timing will bring about conspiracies).

Though that also makes me wonder where this rumor mill started in the last 24 hours. Random Twitter? "Anonymous sources"? Just seems like typical forum overreaction (Not even getting into the airport & Wikipedia edits discussion).

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Been almost a week and still no juicy revelation or Sacramento Democrat entering the race.

While we wait, the latest PPIC poll was published in the last few hours:


PPIC poll (March 14-23,  last poll was Jan 21-31)
1706 residents & 1174 likely voters, MoE +/- 3.3, English/Spanish

Newsom job approval

All Adults
Approve          54%  (Unchanged since last poll)
Disapprove     36%  (Unchanged)
N/A                  10%  (Unchanged)

Likely Voters
Approve          53%  (+1)
Disapprove     42%  (-1)
N/A                    5%  (Unchanged)


"If a special election to recall Governor Newsom were held today, would you vote yes to remove Newsom as governor or no to keep Newsom as governor?" (Wasn't asked in the last poll)
Yes                        40%
No                         56%
N/A                         5%


All adults crosstab
Likely voters crosstab
LA Times article

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Been almost a week and still no juicy revelation or Sacramento Democrat entering the race.

A week (Or two) later and still radio silence.

I don't think either are gonna happen.

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Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?