538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58156 times)
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Junior Chimp
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« on: July 27, 2020, 07:13:08 PM »
I'm honestly rather amused by the anger being levied at this model not being released. I kinda hope Silver ends up never publishing it
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2020, 04:30:06 AM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on July 28, 2020, 04:07:52 AM
Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 06:46:57 PM »
I'm so glad my enjoyment of following this election isn't predicated on whether or not a forecast model comes out
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 05:04:44 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 06:34:43 PM by Monstro »
Texas.....................Trump 71% favored to win, 5% margin
Maine.....................Biden 78% favored to win, 8% margin
Colorado................Biden 85% favored to win, 10% margin
New Mexico...........Biden 90% favored to win, 12% margin
Virginia...................Biden 92% favored to win, 11% margin


Guess which one isn't considered a "state to watch" (Yeah, seems they're going off of the 2016 list minus Utah. But sill)
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2020, 05:44:22 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 05:49:13 PM by Monstro »
Quote from: soundchaser on August 12, 2020, 05:16:52 PM
I don’t see how Silver can give Trump an almost 2/3rds chance to win Texas when the polling looks as bad for him as it does. Feels like he’s relying *way* too much on past fundamentals there.

I'm guessing it's due to how Biden hasn't been polling higher than the 47/48% ceiling that Beto got. Same with Biden currently projected to do about as well as Stacy Abrams did.

In contrary, Biden is consistently polling over the 45% ceiling Dems usually get in Arizona.

Though I'm not sure how/if the model covers things like Democrats underperformance in Sunbelt state polls or undecideds overwhelmingly going for Biden at the moment (I guess they're triple-underlining 'at the moment')
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2020, 04:12:33 PM »
It's crazy how 4% makes the difference between Trump winning a squeaker & Biden having the best election performance since Bush '88
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2020, 08:03:23 PM »
Hell, imagine if that's Biden's map - Michigan + Georgia

So long Rust Belt, hello Sun Belt!
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2020, 07:08:09 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 07:17:05 PM by Monstro »
Trump at 69% in the TX forecast, first time he's been below 70% since August 4.

Also, small thing, but I still can't get over how they have NM & VA (94/95% Biden) as "states to watch" but TX isn't considered one. Hell, they currently got Biden standing a better chance of winning MI/MN/NH/NV/PA/WI than Trump does of winning TX. How is it not a "state to watch"?
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2020, 07:19:34 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2020, 03:51:12 AM by Monstro »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 10, 2020, 07:13:59 PM
Quote from: Monstro on September 10, 2020, 07:08:09 PM
Trump at a 69% in Texas, first time he's been below 70% since August 4.

Also, small thing, but I still can't get over how they have NM & VA (94/95% Biden) as "states to watch" but TX isn't considered one. Hell, they currently got Biden standing a better chance of winning MI/MN/NH/NV/PA/WI than Trump does of winning TX

their TX model makes no sense.

I don't think they, like most news organizations, know what to make of the apparent competitiveness & the polls.

We'll see in a month from now, but they currently have Trump's chances in TX lower than they had Hillarys chances in MI/PA/WI at any time post-first debate
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2020, 10:56:40 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 10:59:55 PM by Monstro »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 10, 2020, 10:42:13 PM
Quote from: Monstro on September 10, 2020, 07:08:09 PM
Trump at 69% in the TX forecast, first time he's been below 70% since August 4.

Also, small thing, but I still can't get over how they have NM & VA (94/95% Biden) as "states to watch" but TX isn't considered one. Hell, they currently got Biden standing a better chance of winning MI/MN/NH/NV/PA/WI than Trump does of winning TX. How is it not a "state to watch"?

Where are you even seeing “states to watch”?  I see a list of “states with the closest races” (which Texas is on) and “states closest to the tipping point” (which TX is not on, but neither are NM or VA).

In the dropdown menu on the top-left bar. It seems to be the same states they categorized in 2016 minus UT. I know they probably haven't given it a thought outside of Utah and it's a really petty thing to bring up
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2020, 08:38:53 PM »

He's as desperate for the horserace as the news media he claims to be above
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 05:23:36 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on September 23, 2020, 04:36:05 PM

I find it ironic how the day that Biden supporters freak out about 2 ABC polls is the same day Biden's chance shoots up.

More 'expected' than 'ironic'
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2020, 07:48:43 PM »
Quote from: The Other Castro on September 24, 2020, 06:04:58 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 24, 2020, 05:33:49 PM
It seems at though the Survey Monkey polls were suddenly removed from the averages.

Good.

Yep.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2020, 03:37:25 PM »
I'm just happy that, after tomorrows jobs report, the 'economics' and 'uncertainty' caveat should be steadily fading away by next week
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2020, 06:18:59 PM »
"It's only a model"

"Shhh!"
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2020, 01:49:05 PM »
When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2020, 01:53:35 PM »
Quote from: Cosmopolitanism Will Win on October 04, 2020, 01:52:32 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 04, 2020, 01:49:05 PM
When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model

It's already fading pretty fast. It's only weighted around 10% of the forecast in most well-polled states, compared to around 20% a few weeks ago.

Feels like it's been around 13% in the closer states for over a week
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2020, 05:51:44 PM »
I just noticed "Today's Vote Share" for Georgia is tied.

Literally the only thing preventing the forecast narrowing from Trump 55-45 is the 'Economics & Incumbency' metric (AKA to some GA avatars here, the 'Voter Suppression' metric)
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2020, 06:17:42 PM »
Popular vote forecast in Georgia is Trump 49.9 - 49.3%

First time since they started calculating in June 1 that he's fallen below 50%.
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2020, 05:40:10 PM »
Ugh that Rasmussen TX poll is keeping Trump from falling below 70%
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2020, 12:48:37 AM »
0.4% popular vote gap in Georgia now, closest it's ever been

Again, that damn 'Incumbency and Economics' caveat
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2020, 02:39:23 PM »
Biden took the forecast lead in Georgia for the first time. He's got a 51% chance of winning
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2020, 03:18:00 PM »
Quote from: Sorenroy on October 17, 2020, 03:13:06 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 17, 2020, 02:39:23 PM
Biden took the forecast lead in Georgia for the first time. He's got a 51% chance of winning

Biden has taken a narrow lead before, but the chart only shows the last update for each day, so those earlier leads have mostly gone. The same could be true of today. Either way, Biden did lead yesterday, as their 9:08 PM update put him at a 50.3% chance to win.

My bad then. I just pulled up the forecast now and it showed them at 50/50 yesterday.

At the very least, first time Biden has led outside of 50/50 & taken the lead in the popular vote forecast. Still think that's worth noting
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2020, 01:11:42 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 01:16:37 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »
The TX forecast is closing fast. It's now at Trump 63-37, the closest its been thus far. They also have a .1% margin in the polling averages and a 1.8% in the projected vote share.

For how long it was stuck hovering at Trump 69-70%, I'm honestly stunned it's closing as fast as it is. Must be the UT-Tyler poll + uncertainty/economics caveat fading away.

Though I'm expecting the NYT/Siena poll to have Trump up by like +4 (With 10%+ undecideds) and bring it back to 68-70% Trump.
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04
« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 05:16:09 PM »
Boooo

Texas jumped from Trump 62% to 70% in the span of 3 days.

All due to the YouGov, NYT/Siena & Univision polls
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