My theory on what the Biden camp is thinking strategically for the rest of the month:
- Win South Carolina, hopefully big
- That provides a great couple day news cycle that his campaign is back on track and he's the main alternative to Sanders
- Wins Alabama (big), Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Improves enough in California to not get shut out of the delegates.
- Win Mississippi (big) and Missouri (maybe Michigan)
- Surpass Bloomberg in Florida, win Ohio (maybe Illinois)
- Win Georgia (big)
Disregarding margins, all those states seem favorable to Biden already. The vagueness lies in Texas, North Carolina and Virginia. And even if he doesn't win those three, I think his margins will be close enough that he won't lose out on many delegates.
My biggest worry, if I were Biden, would be to miss viability in California. That's the easiest way Sanders can turn this from a 3 month nailbiter to a cakewalk.