Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

63-34-3 Clinton

Southern California is gonna overperform. Predicting Orange County to go blue, Riverside County to stay blue for three in a row, LA finally going <70% blue, and Hillary to get around 53% in the IE

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With California being a foregone conclusion, what about map predictions?

I got small to medium Dem swings up and down the state with decent shifts in Southern California. Del Norte will be close, but I'm not feeling a solid coast this year. For that matter, I can't see anywhere outside of the rural North that will swing Trump's way:



I can see her getting as high as 64 here, 65 depending on which counties swing further left

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It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

Santa Cruz and Alameda counties are strong possibilities for a Trump third. Humboldt is one that could give Stein a second place finish.

Pretty much any college-centered county is up for grabs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

Santa Cruz and Alameda counties are strong possibilities for a Trump third. Humboldt is one that could give Stein a second place finish.

Pretty much any college-centered county is up for grabs.

There's a good amount of Republican votes up in Humboldt and Mendocino counties. I think Stein could do well, but 2nd place might be a stretch.

You're probably right. While Stein will get a significant amount of disaffected Bernie voters in Humboldt, her ceiling here is around 15%. There may be a better chance that the combined third parties get more votes than Trump in those two counties

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Forget about Orange County. At this rate, I don't even know if Trump will be able to hold onto Kern County.

I should also point out that, according to the Kern Registrar, Republicans currently hold a 112-voter registration edge in Bakersfield. The gap has been quickly evaporating since the first debate and "that Mexican thing"