VA - Trafalgar - Northam +1

[uti2]

That's where I always* thought this was going!

*OK, there was a 2 week period in Sept when I was entertaining an Obama 2008 margin for Northam, but that opportunity has passed.

Had the financial crisis not hit during September 2015, that race would've been far closer, similar to what the OP poll has for the current race.

2 different factors would've played a role:

1) Mccain was a stronger candidate (than Romney) as he had genuine appeal to PUMAs/moderates.

2) Obama & Hillary basically tied the '08 primary, they weren't that dissimilar from each other in raw electability.

[uti2]

That's where I always* thought this was going!

*OK, there was a 2 week period in Sept when I was entertaining an Obama 2008 margin for Northam, but that opportunity has passed.

Had the financial crisis not hit during September 2015, that race would've been far closer, similar to what the OP poll has for the current race.

2 different factors would've played a role:

1) Mccain was a stronger candidate (than Romney) as he had genuine appeal to PUMAs/moderates.

2) Obama & Hillary basically tied the '08 primary, they weren't that dissimilar from each other in raw electability.

1) True, but at the same time, canceling that out was McCain's status as a Senator and his coming off as completely out of his depth on economic and financial issues.

That's not Mccain's fault. It was the initial GOP consensus position to oppose the bailout, and then the position was switched to supporting the bailout after the fact.

[uti2]

Good to see these guys finally have a junk poll.

Compared to the other GOP polls, at least they knew how to hedge.