Cuban says that if he runs, it will be as a Republican (user search)
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  Cuban says that if he runs, it will be as a Republican (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cuban says that if he runs, it will be as a Republican  (Read 1863 times)
uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« on: October 25, 2017, 02:22:08 PM »

Why do you think Trump is still a God-emperor in the base's eyes whereas they hate everyone else?

Because he's president and they're not.  Just like Bush was popular among Republicans when he was president, and Cruz or Rubio or whoever would be popular with Republicans if they were president right now instead of Trump.


Umm, no. If that's what GOP voters wanted, Cruz or Rubio would have been the nominee.

No, I don't think so.  The GOP primary electorate "wanted" Trump in the sense that a plurality of them had him as their first choice, but that's not the same as him being some kind of consensus choice.  Up until the last month or so of the primary campaign, Trump did worse than Cruz and Rubio in favorability ratings of Republican voters, and was consistently near the top or at the top of "who is your least favorite candidate" polls of Republican voters.  He had poor numbers in "Would you be satisfied if he was the nominee?" polls:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-voters-kind-of-hate-all-their-choices/

But then, towards the end of the primary campaign, the ground started to shift in his direction, simply because he was becoming the de facto nominee.  If any other candidate had been in a similar position, they also would have become more popular among Republican voters.


Cruz & Rubio did well with party regulars. Trump specifically did well with the type of Independent that tends to learn R and thus determines elections for Rs. These voters don't have any party loyalty, compared to Cruz/Rubio voters. Think about this carefully, how would cruz/rubio be significantly more electable after alienating the literal exact type of independent voter they would need to count on to win?
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uti2
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,495


« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2017, 06:12:57 PM »

The GOP arguably would have won different Lean R voters.  A "America first conservative" and a "country club Republican" each count as one at the ballot box.

Country club Republicans are increasingly in states Republicans no longer win, while America-first types are much more present in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Florida. So no, their votes don’t count the same in our retarded electoral system.

Don't you think the GOP could have won Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida with better suburban numbers, too?

Ohio and Florida yes, Pennsylvania no, Philadelphia's suburbs have been solidly Democratic for a while now, and that's why the GOP wasn't capable of winning the state for a quarter of a century until Trump increased the margins elsewhere in the state, but I agree that there was more than one path to victory in Ohio and Florida.

I disagree.  I think Toomey's map shows how.  The key is really just winning Chester and Bucks, racking up margins in Lancaster and possibly Berks, and keeping down margins in Delaware and Montgomery.

Santorum easily won his senate race in 2000, while Gore simultaneously easily carried the state.
Same goes for Specter in 2004. That pattern has not historically translated to top of the ticket voting where there is a different calculation, voters in PA were turned off by Bush's social conservatism, so you're suggesting someone more conservative than Bush would pick up those voters, on what basis? In terms of absolute votes, Trump actually won more votes than Toomey.
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