Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[uti2]

Do you see Roe v Wade being overturned in this timeline sometime during either Trump or Pence's administrations? 

No. White women vote GOP and the deal was, if Roe is tossed, they go Democratic.  Abortion is pretty much a sham. Everyone knows that the GOP uses abortion as a cultural codeword, not actually tossing Roe. They'll limit abortions some but a gutting of Roe would kung fu the RNC.

That's how Charlie Crist/John Boehner-style republicans see the issue, not Tea Party republicans.

I guarantee you that if a Tea Party socon been elected in the style of Walker/Rubio/Cruz, they absolutely would've gutted it. They're true believers, Pence would do it as well.

The only way Roe isn't gutted with the GOP in charge of the government is if the republican has some inherently moderate tendencies a la Jeb/Kasich/Christie/Trump, which is why your timeline wouldn't work if it features a Tea Party republican or a pro-Tea Party republican (like Pence) in charge of the government.

[uti2]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

[uti2]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

A State AG or a number of State AGs would've sued the Federal Government over DACA, and ultimately the administration would be forced to address the issue one way or another. They'd have to defend DACA in court if they wanted it to continue.