I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently
I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.
Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.
I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.
I'd trust the black police chief far more to not be a socialist, as opposed to some Cuban.
