Doug Jones Internal: Moore +4

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

MA is "elastic" as some would say, but not very much so at the federal level. Before Scott Brown, the last Republican Senator we sent to DC was in 1948. Even our popular Governor, Bill Weld, who won reelection with 70% of the vote, lost to John Kerry in 1996. Scott Brown won because turnout was in his favor, and he was running against a laughably bad opponent. He won by 5 points with less votes than Mitt Romney lost by 23 points with in 2012. Elasticity doesn't mean much in special elections.

Ed Brooke was elected in 1972, the last Republican Senator to be elected from Massachusetts until Scott Brown. Even then, Brooke was defeated pretty soundly for reelection in 1978.